Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Material from: Linus, Ervin
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
For 29 September, a red warning was in effect for the Valencia area. There were reports about flash floods in many areas, mainly in the eastern coastal part, but also in Zaragoza. some videos shows cars being washed down streets. Luckily there are no reports about casualties.
The event can be compared to the catastrophic flooding last year: 202410 - Rainfall - Spain
The evaluation will focus on the 24-hour precipitation on 29 September (00-00) in the box 38.75N-40.0N, 1.0W-0W
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 27 September 00UTC to 30 September 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 26 September to 30 September. The trough the impacted Spain on 29 September originated from the tropical cyclone Gabrielle.
Observations and analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation on 29 September.
Forecast Evolution plot
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 1-day precipitation on 29 September in the box in the Valencia area (see plots above).
Legend:
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE 4.4km - evergreen
AIFS-single - cyan dot
ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle