Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Material from: Linus, Ervin
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
The tropical cyclone Bualoi first hit the Philippines and later Vietnam in September causing widespread flooding.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Bualoi
The evaluation will focus on the 1-day precipitation on 28 September in the box 17N-20V, 104.5E-107.5E.
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 26 September 00UTC to 29 September 00UTC, every 12th hour.
Observations and analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation on 28 Sept.
Forecast Evolution plot
The evolution plot below shows the forecasts for 24-hour precipitation inside the box outlined above.
Legend:
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE 4.4km - evergreen
AIFS-single - cyan dot
ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle
Tropical cyclone forecasts
The plots below show forecasts from IFS with the symbols indicating the intensity and position on 28 September 00UTC (control forecast - blue, perturbed members - grey, BestTrack -black).
The plots below show forecasts from AIFS with the symbols indicating the intensity and position on 28 September 00UTC (AIFS-single - red, control forecast - blue, perturbed members - grey, BestTrack -black).
