Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Material from: Linus, Ervin, ...
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
Storm Amy was the first windstorm of the season for north-western Europe and hit Ireland, Scotland, Norway and other countries on 3-4 October with severe winds. The cyclone formed from the synoptic system related to the tropical cyclones Humberto and Imelda in the western Atlantic. The new low-pressure system moved quickly and intensified on 3 October and reached northern Ireland and western Scotland on that evening.
The evaluation will focus on the 24-hour maximum mean wind on 3 October 12UTC to 4 October 12UTC in the box 1x1 degree box centred on Tiree, Scotland (56.5N, 6.9W)
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 1 October 12UTC to 4 October 12UTC, every 12th hour.
The plot below shows the time series of 10-metre wind speed observation for Tiree and analysis and first guess departures.
Observations and analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
Hybrid
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
Forecast Evolution plot
The plot below shows the evolution of 24-hour maximum mean wind in a 1x1 degree box centred on Tiree (see plots above). Note that the observation station on Tiree broke down during the event, so the observed maximum might be underestimated.
Legend:
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE 4.4km - evergreen
AIFS-single - cyan dot
Hybrid - orange dot
ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle
The plot below shows the same as above but for 24-hour maximum wind gusts. (But without AIFS.)
The plot below shows the evolution the 10-metre mean wind on 4 October 00UTC in a 0.5x0.5 degree box on the south-west coast of Norway (see observation plot to the right). The extreme wind speed in the both ensembles for the shortest forecast (step 0) is believed to be fixed by the changes in the tuning of the SPP scheme in 50r1.
The plot below shows the evolution of the minimum pressure in the box 3x3 degree box cented on 60N, 3W on 4 October 00UTC.
The plots below show the cyclone feature maps valid 4 October 00UTC with the dots coloured by the cyclone minimum pressure.
