Material from: Linus, Ervin, ...

1. Overview

2. Analyses and Observations

2.1 Event Definition

The evaluation will focus on the 24-hour maximum mean wind on 3 October 12UTC to 4 October 12UTC in the box 1x1 degree box centred on Tiree (56.5N, 6.9W)

2.2 Analyses

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 1 October 12UTC to 4 October 12UTC, every 12th hour.

2.3 Observations

2.4 Climatological perspective

3. Forecasts

3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage

3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)

Observations and analysis for the event

Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)

DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)

Hybrid

AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)

AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)

3.3 Ensemble distribution

EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)

Forecast Evolution plot

The plot below shows the evolution of 24-hour maximum mean wind in a 1x1 degree box centred on Tiree (see plots above). Note that the observation station on Tiree broke down during the event, so the observed maximum might be underestimated.

Legend:

Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE 4.4km - evergreen
AIFS-single - cyan dot
Hybrid - orange dot
ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS distribution - pink

ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle

The plot below shows the same as above but for 24-hour maximum wind gusts. (But without AIFS.)

The plots below show the cyclone feature maps valid 4 October 00UTC with the dots coloured by the cyclone minimum pressure.

3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Hazard Forecasts

5. Dedicated Experiments

6. Event Summary

6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases

7. Additional material