Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Material from: Linus, David, ..
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
On 20 January the storm Harry impacted the southern-central Mediterranean with extreme rainfall and waves.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/cyclone-harry-southern-italy-between-extreme-disyf/
Here we will focus on 24-hour maximum significant wave height on 20 January in a 0.5x0.5 degree box south-east of Sicily (centred on 36.2N, 15.3E).
We will also evaluate the 3-day precipitation on 19-21 January in one 0.5x0.5 box on Sicily (37.7N, 15E) and one box over north-eastern Tunisia (36.5N, 10.5E).
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 18 January 00UTC to 22 January 00UTC, every 12th hour
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 14 January to 23 January, every 24 hour.
The plots below show the forecasts for the wave event.
Analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv2.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below show the EFI for 24-hour maximum significant wave height valid 20 January.
The plots below show the EFI for 3-day precipitation valid 19-21 January.
Forecast Evolution plot
The evolution plot below shows the forecasts for maximum significant wave height on 20 January inside the box south-east of Sicily. For AIFS version 2 (orange) is used as that version is the first with wave forecasts.
The evolution plot below shows the forecasts for precipitation on 19-21 January inside the boxes on Sicily and in Tunisia outlined in the observation plots below.
