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Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Mohammed, Fernando

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/09/26/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/09/28/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/09/29/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/09/30/sc/

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

The plots below show the observation statistics for temperature (left) and wind vector (middle) from dropsondes and surface pressure observations (right).

29 September 00z

Forecast User > 201609 - Tropical Cyclone - Matthew > 0001_2016092900_drop_temp_MATTHEW.ps.gif

29 September 12z

Forecast User > 201609 - Tropical Cyclone - Matthew > 0001_2016092912_drop_temp_MATTHEW.ps.gif

30 September 00z

Forecast User > 201609 - Tropical Cyclone - Matthew > 0001_2016093000_drop_temp_MATTHEW.ps.gif

30 September 12z

Forecast User > 201609 - Tropical Cyclone - Matthew > 0001_2016093012_drop_temp_MATTHEW.ps.gif

1 October 00z

Forecast User > 201609 - Tropical Cyclone - Matthew > 0001_2016100100_drop_temp_MATTHEW.ps.gif

1 October 12z

Forecast User > 201609 - Tropical Cyclone - Matthew > 0001_2016100112_drop_temp_MATTHEW.ps.gif

2 October 00z

Forecast User > 201609 - Tropical Cyclone - Matthew > 0001_2016100200_drop_temp_MATTHEW.ps.gif

2 October 12z

Forecast User > 201609 - Tropical Cyclone - Matthew > 0001_2016100212_drop_temp_MATTHEW.ps.gif

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the forecast of tropical cyclone activity for 3-5 October, for forecasts with 1 day apart.

Forecast User > 201609 - Tropical Cyclone - Matthew > tc_act_1.png

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material