System name: GloSea6-GC5.1
First operational forecast run: 3 March 2026
Is it a coupled model? Yes: Atmosphere, land, ocean and sea-ice.
Coupling frequency: Hourly coupling between atmosphere-land and ocean-sea-ice.
The coupled model Global Coupled 5.1 (GC5.1) is described in Xavier et al., 2023.
| Model | Met Office Unified Model (UM) - Global Atmosphere and Land 9.1 |
|---|---|
| Horizontal resolution and grid | N216: 0.83 degrees x 0.56 degrees (approx 60km in mid-latitudes) |
| Atmosphere vertical resolution | 85 levels |
| Top of atmosphere | 85km |
| Soil levels (layers) | 4 Layer 1 : 0 - 0.1 m |
| Time step | 15 minutes |
Detailed documentation:
| Ocean model | NEMO v4.0.4 - Global Ocean Sea Ice 9.0 |
|---|---|
| Horizontal resolution | ORCA 0.25 |
| Vertical resolution | L75 |
| Time step | 30 minutes |
| Sea ice model | SI3 - Global Ocean Sea Ice 9.0 |
| Sea ice model resolution | ORCA 0.25 |
| Sea ice model levels | 5 categories + open water |
| Wave model | N/A |
| Wave model resolution | N/A |
Detailed documentation: NEMO documentation
GOSI9: Guiavarc'h et al, 2025.
| Greenhouse gases | CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC12, HCFC134a - SSP2-4.5 |
|---|---|
| Ozone | CMIP6. Zonal mean climatology 1993-2014. |
| Tropospheric aerosols | Derived from climatology of Model with full aerosol scheme |
| Volcanic aerosols | Backgroud aerosol |
| Solar forcing | CMIP6 |
Detailed documentation:
| Hindcast | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|
| Atmosphere initialization | ERA-5 | Met Office Global Hybrid 4D-VAR |
| Atmosphere IC perturbations | None | None |
| Soil moisture & temperature initialization | Met Office JULES-ERA5 analysis | Met Office JULES-ERA5 analysis |
| Snow initialization | Met Office JULES-ERA5 analysis | Met Office JULES-ERA5 analysis |
| Unperturbed control forecast? | No | No |
Detailed documentation:
Met Office Global Hybrid 4D-VAR: Clayton et al, 2013
ERA5: Hersbach et al., 2020
| Hindcast | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|
| Ocean initialization | GloSea Ocean Sea-Ice Analysis (GS-OSIA) | Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) |
| Ocean IC perturbations | No | No |
| Unperturbed control forecast? | No | No |
Detailed documentation:
The GS-OSIA and the FOAM system both use the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean data assimilation system (NEMOVAR). This is a 3d-VAR data assimilation scheme. The GS-OSIA uses different surface forcing (ERA-5) and observation sets as it is a historical analysis. FOAM uses surface forcing from the Met Office Global NWP model and real-time observations.
The common NEMOVAR system is described in Blockley et al, 2014.
| Model dynamics perturbations | None |
|---|---|
| Model physics perturbations | Atmosphere stochastic physics scheme, SKEB2 |
If there is a control forecast, is it perturbed? | No control |
Detailed documentation:
| Forecast frequency | daily |
|---|---|
| Forecast ensemble size | 2 per day |
| Hindcast years | 24 (1993-2016) |
| Hindcast ensemble size | 7 per start date |
| Hindcast start dates | 1, 9, 17, 25 of each month |
| On-the-fly or static hindcast set? | on-the-fly |
Atmosphere: area weighted regrid from N216 to 1x1 degree.
Ocean: uses a two-stage regrid.
Atmosphere: linear interpolation from the model hybrid height grid onto pressure levels.
GloSea system:
Kettleborough, J. A., and Coauthors, 2025: Global Seasonal Forecasting System 6 (GloSea6): A Large Ensemble Seasonal Forecasting System. Monthly Weather Review, 154, 39–57, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-25-0007.1.
Model description references:
Bowler, N. E., A. Arribas, S. E. Beare, K. R. Mylne, and G. J. Shutts, 2009: The local ETKF and SKEB: Upgrades to the MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135, 767–776, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.394.
Guiavarc’h, C., and Coauthors, 2025: GOSI9: UK Global Ocean and Sea Ice configurations. Geoscientific Model Development, 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025.
Initialisation references:
Forcing references:
Eyring, V., S. Bony, G. A. Meehl, C. A. Senior, B. Stevens, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor, 2016: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016.