Status: Finalised Material from: Linus

1. Impact

On 19 November the windstorm Angus formed over the Atlantic and brought strong winds onto the shores of Brittany and southern England on 20 November and later on along the Belgian and Dutch coasts. The cyclone also brought heavy rainfall for south-western England, which got even worse during the a cyclone a day later.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38038992

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-38049907

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of extra-tropical cyclone features. The cyclone rapidly deepened late on 19 November south of Ireland.

The plots below show a sequence of satellite images from yr.no starting from 19 November 18z to 21 November 00z.

The plot below shows the observed 24-hour precipitation for 19 November 06z to 20 November 06z.

24-hour maximum wind gusts for 20 November. Please note that Brittany experienced severe (>40 m/s) gusts late on 19 November, which is not included in the  

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

24-hour maximum winds gusts (20 November) and MSLP valid 20 November 12z from o-suite:

24-hour maximum winds gusts (20 November) and MSLP valid 20 November 12z from e-suite:

24-hour precipitation (19 Nov 06z - 20 Nov 06z) from o-suite:

24-hour precipitation (19 Nov 06z - 20 Nov 06z) from e-suite:

3.3 ENS

EFI and SOT for wind gusts for 20 November from o-suite.

EFI and SOT for wind gusts for 20 November from e-suite.

EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation (19-21 November) from o-suite:

EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation (19-21 November) from e-suite:

Cyclone feature plots valid 20 November 00z:

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

• The risk for a deep storm was well predicted from 14 November and onwards (6 days in advance)
• Also shortest forecasts missed the severity of the rainfall in south-western England
• E-suite performed similar to o-suite

6. Additional material

 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

1. Impact

On 19 November the windstorm Angus formed over the Atlantic and brought strong winds onto the shores of Brittany and southern England on 20 November and later on along the Belgian and Dutch coasts. The cyclone also brought heavy rainfall for south-western England, which got even worse during the a cyclone a day later.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38038992

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-38049907

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of extra-tropical cyclone features. The cyclone rapidly deepened late on 19 November south of Ireland.

The plots below show a sequence of satellite images from yr.no starting from 19 November 18z to 21 November 00z.

The plot below shows the observed 24-hour precipitation for 19 November 06z to 20 November 06z.

24-hour maximum wind gusts for 20 November. Please note that Brittany experienced severe (>40 m/s) gusts late on 19 November, which is not included in the  

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

24-hour maximum winds gusts (20 November) and MSLP valid 20 November 12z from o-suite:

24-hour maximum winds gusts (20 November) and MSLP valid 20 November 12z from e-suite:

24-hour precipitation (19 Nov 06z - 20 Nov 06z) from o-suite:

24-hour precipitation (19 Nov 06z - 20 Nov 06z) from e-suite:

3.3 ENS

EFI and SOT for wind gusts for 20 November from o-suite.

EFI and SOT for wind gusts for 20 November from e-suite.

EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation (19-21 November) from o-suite:

EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation (19-21 November) from e-suite:

Cyclone feature plots valid 20 November 00z:

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

• The risk for a deep storm was well predicted from 14 November and onwards (6 days in advance)
• Also shortest forecasts missed the severity of the rainfall in south-western England
• E-suite performed similar to o-suite

6. Additional material