Material from:

1. Overview

2. Analyses and Observations

2.1 Event Definition

The evaluation will focus on the 5-day precipitation between 30 September 06UTC and 5 October 06UTC for a 0.5x0.5 degree box centred on 35.3N, 24.4E on Crete.

2.2 Analyses

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 28 September 00UTC to 5 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.

The plots below show z500 and T850 from 24 September to 5 October 00UTC, every 24 hour.

2.3 Observations

2.4 Climatological perspective

3. Forecasts

3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage

3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)

Observations and analysis for the event

Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)

DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)

AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)

AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)

3.3 Ensemble distribution

EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)

The plots below show the EFI for 5-day precipitation for 30 September 00UTC to 5 October 00UTC, from different initial dates.

Forecast Evolution plot

The plot below shows the evolution of the forecasts for 5-day precipitation (30 September 06UTC - 5 October 06UTC) for the box on Crete defined in Section 2.1.

3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Hazard Forecasts

5. Dedicated Experiments

6. Event Summary

6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases

7. Additional material