Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Material from:
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
Between 30 September and 4 October 2026, Crete was hit by five consecutive days of intense rain and thunderstorms. Authorities placed the whole island on red alert, schools in Chania and Rethymno were closed on 1 October, and repeated 112 emergency alerts were issued for parts of Rethymno, Heraklion and Lasithi. The highest totals fell over the mountains: more than 220 mm was reported at Profitis Ilias (Heraklion) on 1 October, and the Lasithi Plateau received about 440 mm in two days and around 470 mm in four days, compared with a normal annual total of 700-900 mm. Damage was reported in all four regional units. In Mylopotamos (Rethymno), the village of Zoniana was flooded, the Diskouri bridge near Livadia was swept away and 30-40 residents were evacuated. An 80-year-old livestock farmer was found dead near Karines in Rethymno after being swept away by a stream. In Lasithi, landslides and torrents damaged roads and tourist areas around Ierapetra, and up to 85% of the crops on the Lasithi Plateau may have been affected. Between 1 and 4 October the Fire Service received 485 calls and moved 101 people to safety. Greece activated the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMSR933) to map the affected areas.
Sources: Euronews, ProtoThema, Greek City Times
The evaluation will focus on the 5-day precipitation between 30 September 06UTC and 5 October 06UTC for a 0.5x0.5 degree box centred on 35.3N, 24.4E on Crete.
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 28 September 00UTC to 5 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show z500 and T850 from 24 September to 5 October 00UTC, every 24 hour.
Observations and analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below show the EFI for 5-day precipitation for 30 September 00UTC to 5 October 00UTC, from different initial dates.
Forecast Evolution plot
The plot below shows the evolution of the forecasts for 5-day precipitation (30 September 06UTC - 5 October 06UTC) for the box on Crete defined in Section 2.1.
