Material from: Linus. Esti, ...

1. Overview

2. Analyses and Observations

2.1 Event Definition

We will focus on 24-hour precipitation on 22 August in a 1x1 degree box centred on Western Latvia (57.5N, 22.5E).

2.2 Analyses

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 20 August 00UTC to 24 August 00UTC, every 12th hour.

The plots below show z500 and T850 from 18 to 24 August 00UTC, every 24 hour.

2.3 Observations

2.4 Climatological perspective

3. Forecasts

3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage

3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)

Observations and analysis for the event

Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)

DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)

AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)

AIFS-ENS control (~0.25 degree resolution)

Hybrid control

3.3 Ensemble distribution

EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)

The plots below shows the EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation on 22 August.

Forecast Evolution plot

3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Hazard Forecasts

5. Dedicated Experiments

6. Event Summary

6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases

7. Additional material