Status: Finalised Material from: Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
During the last weekend of January River Seine flooded in Paris, with a level of 5.8 metres (June 2016 peaked on 6.1 m).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42856634
The plot below shows the accumulated precipitation from 1 December 2017 aggregated from ~15 stations upstream Paris (in the box 48-50N, 2-5E). Te region experienced three wet periods, where the last one happened between 16-23 January.
The plot below shows the accumulated precipitation from 1 December 2017 aggregated from ~15 stations upstream Paris (in the box 48-50N, 2-5E), from observations (black) and ensemble mean forecasts with different lead times. The accumulation from climatology is shown is grey. Also the longest lead time (15-day forecasts) captured half of the observed wet anomaly. The information missing in this plot is whether the model on this lead time has a bias and optimally the plot should include the accumulation from the model climate as well.
The figure below shows the analysed weekly precipitation 15-22 January (first panel) and weekly means from monthly forecasts.
The next plot shows the same as above but for MSLP.
The plots below show EFAS forecasts for a point on Seine in Paris, starting from the last forecast. The risk of exceed 20 year return period (purple band) was well captured from 17 January.