At extended range the day-to-day trajectories are affected by substantially larger uncertainty. Therefore, the evolution of the forecast anomalies is represented by the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) based on daily values of individual member projections verifying a given week.
Test products
Please note that these test products are not operationally supported, although ECMWF makes best efforts to ensure they are routinely available. These products should not be relied on for operational use.
PDFs for the latest extended range forecast. (the diagram is updated every Monday and Thursday). Each panel shows the PDF of the latest forecast valid for four subsequent weeks. Contours are created dynamically and depend on the max/min values of the PDF.
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PDFs with verification for the forecast issued 4 weeks earlier. Daily values from the analysis are represented by yellow (first day) to brown(last day of the target period) circles.
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