Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Picture
1. Impact
Between 13 and 14 October the tropical cyclone Leslie make landfall in Portugal.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45853847
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plot below show observed 24-hour wind gusts (first plot, not sure all obs are in here!) valid for 13 October 12UTC to 14 October 12UTC and HRES forecasts for 24-hour maximum wind gusts (shade) and MSLP valid 14 October 00UTC (contour). Only the HRES from 12 October 12UTC and later predicted well the landfall on Portugal.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid on 13 October.
The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, best track - black), position and intensity on 13 October 18UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 13 October 00UTC (first plot) to 4 October 00UTC (last plot).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases