Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Tim, ..
1. Impact
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yjjqyv84eo
2. Description of the event
The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 72-hour rainfall on 13 September 00UTC - 16 September 00UTC in Vienna, Austria (48.2N, 16.4E). Some diagnostics will also be for Ostrava in Czech Rep. (49.9N, 18.1E)
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 11 September 00UTC to 16 September 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 10 September to 16 September.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in observations (first plot, to be added) and concatenated short forecasts (second plot).
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in DestinE 4.4km with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in AIFS with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in AIFS0-ENS member 1 with different lead times.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI for 3-day precipitation (13-15 September).
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation for Vienna.
Observation - green hourglass (to be added
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
AIFS - cyan dot
AIFS-ENS - grey box-and-whisker
Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker
Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.
The plot below shows the same as above but for Ostrava.
The plots below show hit (green), misses (purple) and false alarms (cyan) of predicting precipitation above the 99th percentile of model climate, based on the ensemble median.
The plots below show the same as above but for AIFS-ENS.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show forecasts of weekly precipitation anomalies for 9-15 September.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event