This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the SON 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 11 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th August 2025 and Thursday 23rd October 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
SON 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.087 0.125 0.055 0.05 0.058 0.025 0.044 0.072 0.08 0.124 0.088 0.117 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.081 0.113 0.055 0.041 0.058 0.038 0.04 0.067 0.069 0.135 0.084 0.108 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 9 0.047 0.05 0.039 0.039 0.056 0.022 0.03 0.063 0.012 0.02 0.058 0.077 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 3 0.073 0.12 0.037 0.01 0.036 0.004 0.021 0.073 0.08 0.133 0.072 0.068 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 4 0.071 0.13 0.015 0.011 0.012 0.004 0.006 0.048 0.128 0.131 0.054 0.072 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 10 0.01 0.028 0.006 -0.002 0.012 -0.071 0.026 0.049 0.024 -0.012 0.018 -0.017 LP 3 LPM 5 0.064 0.088 0.048 0.028 0.058 0.009 0.022 0.063 0.048 0.093 0.085 0.08 AIFS 4 AIFShera 6 0.058 0.073 0.045 0.024 0.047 0.02 0.032 0.061 0.072 0.079 0.067 0.084 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 7 0.054 0.072 0.042 0.012 0.05 0.009 0.04 0.055 0.043 0.064 0.073 0.063 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 8 0.053 0.079 0.033 0.001 0.038 0.013 0.033 0.055 0.039 0.08 0.056 0.074 scienceAI 5 findforecast 11 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.014 0.006 0.014 0.004 0.031 -0.007 0.007 -0.009 0.026 scienceAI 5 zephyr 12 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 12 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather2 14 -0.076 -0.084 -0.105 -0.077 -0.041 -0.014 -0.07 -0.067 -0.089 -0.12 -0.095 -0.053 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather 17 -0.298 -0.325 -0.33 -0.317 -0.291 -0.167 -0.21 -0.217 -0.24 -0.376 -0.431 -0.363 WindBorne 7 WeatherMesh 15 -0.148 -0.092 -0.125 -0.283 -0.125 -0.526 -0.195 -0.155 -0.143 -0.076 -0.073 -0.176 HAPPY 8 AZN 16 -0.207 -0.227 -0.202 -0.572 -0.157 -0.045 -0.113 -0.195 -0.303 -0.166 -0.226 -0.429 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S1 18 -0.326 -0.297 -0.335 -0.413 -0.295 -0.406 -0.365 -0.214 -0.268 -0.316 -0.367 -0.434 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S3 20 -0.389 -0.414 -0.398 -0.412 -0.297 -0.466 -0.38 -0.286 -0.375 -0.434 -0.427 -0.456 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S2 22 -0.494 -0.521 -0.511 -0.538 -0.406 -0.481 -0.505 -0.428 -0.556 -0.472 -0.494 -0.636 JR 10 slowMamba 19 -0.356 -0.323 -0.333 -0.37 -0.389 -0.47 -0.374 -0.438 -0.455 -0.223 -0.31 -0.259
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.065 0.094 0.039 0.046 0.047 0.028 0.023 0.078 0.055 0.107 0.058 0.076 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.063 0.088 0.04 0.034 0.05 0.042 0.022 0.071 0.048 0.113 0.061 0.07 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 8 0.03 0.035 0.019 0.038 0.042 0.013 0.004 0.074 0.003 0.02 0.026 0.047 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 3 0.053 0.096 0.011 0.009 0.015 0.013 0.006 0.049 0.075 0.124 0.039 0.034 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 4 0.048 0.076 0.027 0.015 0.019 0.006 0.024 0.062 0.031 0.094 0.042 0.034 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 10 0.007 0.017 0.015 0.007 -0.001 -0.054 0.026 0.051 0.028 -0.004 -0.003 -0.024 LP 3 LPM 5 0.04 0.055 0.026 0.011 0.043 0.023 0.008 0.064 0.005 0.067 0.05 0.033 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 6 0.034 0.043 0.023 0.003 0.025 0.031 0.012 0.06 0.026 0.031 0.028 0.041 AIFS 4 AIFShera 7 0.033 0.046 0.019 -0.0 0.028 0.019 0.01 0.044 0.047 0.046 0.029 0.052 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 9 0.015 0.003 0.021 -0.006 0.034 0.022 0.012 0.054 0.01 -0.032 0.028 0.015 scienceAI 5 findforecast 11 0.002 -0.004 0.004 0.005 0.011 0.008 0.012 0.031 -0.012 0.008 -0.014 0.006 scienceAI 5 zephyr 12 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 5 ngcm 12 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather2 14 -0.104 -0.124 -0.146 -0.081 -0.05 -0.012 -0.122 -0.081 -0.106 -0.174 -0.14 -0.099 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather 17 -0.335 -0.379 -0.335 -0.342 -0.29 -0.271 -0.209 -0.194 -0.282 -0.44 -0.446 -0.402 HAPPY 7 AZN 15 -0.25 -0.291 -0.235 -0.684 -0.16 -0.069 -0.225 -0.153 -0.44 -0.226 -0.248 -0.442 WindBorne 8 WeatherMesh 16 -0.288 -0.258 -0.178 -0.523 -0.225 -0.754 -0.22 -0.275 -0.253 -0.133 -0.169 -0.527 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S1 18 -0.345 -0.314 -0.384 -0.405 -0.357 -0.339 -0.38 -0.305 -0.256 -0.353 -0.388 -0.383 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S3 21 -0.453 -0.511 -0.388 -0.376 -0.386 -0.526 -0.402 -0.291 -0.481 -0.561 -0.456 -0.461 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S2 22 -0.52 -0.524 -0.561 -0.543 -0.427 -0.58 -0.524 -0.473 -0.576 -0.544 -0.529 -0.435 JR 10 slowMamba 19 -0.359 -0.334 -0.326 -0.359 -0.454 -0.41 -0.413 -0.395 -0.471 -0.255 -0.33 -0.258
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
