This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the SON 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 13 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th August 2025 and Thursday 6th November 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
SON 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.093 0.13 0.059 0.052 0.065 0.05 0.038 0.082 0.076 0.141 0.094 0.116 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.087 0.118 0.061 0.042 0.064 0.07 0.036 0.08 0.065 0.15 0.092 0.103 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 9 0.054 0.059 0.041 0.043 0.063 0.046 0.017 0.072 0.011 0.043 0.063 0.081 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 3 0.076 0.119 0.04 0.018 0.039 0.023 0.019 0.08 0.07 0.146 0.077 0.073 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 5 0.069 0.124 0.016 0.017 0.014 0.013 0.01 0.052 0.116 0.141 0.051 0.065 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 11 0.007 0.021 0.012 0.005 0.01 -0.082 0.033 0.046 0.016 -0.001 0.014 -0.017 LP 3 LPM 4 0.073 0.097 0.055 0.03 0.061 0.04 0.017 0.074 0.043 0.112 0.093 0.087 AIFS 4 AIFShera 6 0.063 0.079 0.048 0.029 0.057 0.029 0.022 0.073 0.071 0.094 0.072 0.087 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 7 0.06 0.083 0.044 0.006 0.046 0.026 0.031 0.068 0.036 0.1 0.062 0.081 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 8 0.059 0.076 0.046 0.017 0.057 0.027 0.033 0.065 0.036 0.077 0.081 0.071 scienceAI 5 findforecast 10 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.016 0.005 0.018 0.008 0.033 -0.008 0.013 -0.005 0.025 scienceAI 5 ngcm 12 0.006 0.006 0.01 -0.0 0.007 0.005 -0.006 0.013 -0.017 0.02 0.017 0.008 scienceAI 5 zephyr 13 0.003 -0.0 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.01 0.001 0.008 -0.001 0.002 -0.0 0.002 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather2 14 -0.064 -0.071 -0.092 -0.058 -0.038 -0.013 -0.067 -0.051 -0.072 -0.103 -0.085 -0.044 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather 17 -0.282 -0.314 -0.299 -0.283 -0.255 -0.182 -0.194 -0.201 -0.228 -0.35 -0.385 -0.367 WindBorne 7 WeatherMesh 15 -0.149 -0.093 -0.107 -0.28 -0.112 -0.571 -0.188 -0.131 -0.161 -0.051 -0.047 -0.201 HAPPY 8 AZN 16 -0.21 -0.212 -0.241 -0.556 -0.187 0.009 -0.186 -0.182 -0.29 -0.16 -0.267 -0.389 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S1 18 -0.287 -0.276 -0.289 -0.35 -0.259 -0.32 -0.325 -0.183 -0.239 -0.302 -0.337 -0.372 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S3 20 -0.351 -0.366 -0.357 -0.35 -0.275 -0.479 -0.327 -0.253 -0.331 -0.373 -0.384 -0.398 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S2 22 -0.435 -0.465 -0.428 -0.458 -0.341 -0.484 -0.413 -0.362 -0.489 -0.398 -0.415 -0.557 JR 10 slowMamba 19 -0.29 -0.258 -0.268 -0.3 -0.331 -0.397 -0.32 -0.359 -0.393 -0.168 -0.242 -0.202
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.069 0.099 0.037 0.056 0.041 0.05 0.024 0.068 0.055 0.12 0.061 0.072 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.068 0.094 0.04 0.044 0.044 0.07 0.025 0.064 0.049 0.123 0.064 0.067 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 8 0.037 0.047 0.014 0.05 0.036 0.043 -0.002 0.061 0.008 0.047 0.029 0.044 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 3 0.05 0.092 0.01 0.017 0.009 0.013 0.011 0.039 0.069 0.123 0.038 0.035 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 5 0.049 0.08 0.024 0.032 0.014 0.012 0.029 0.048 0.03 0.104 0.045 0.041 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 10 0.006 0.014 0.017 0.01 0.001 -0.065 0.037 0.039 0.025 0.021 -0.006 -0.041 LP 3 LPM 4 0.049 0.068 0.03 0.027 0.04 0.045 0.009 0.058 0.009 0.09 0.058 0.042 AIFS 4 AIFShera 6 0.04 0.06 0.016 0.023 0.024 0.023 0.008 0.037 0.051 0.071 0.033 0.06 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 7 0.038 0.052 0.02 0.024 0.018 0.036 0.016 0.048 0.029 0.053 0.027 0.052 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 9 0.019 0.008 0.02 0.014 0.029 0.041 0.014 0.043 0.009 -0.022 0.033 0.024 scienceAI 5 findforecast 11 0.003 -0.002 0.003 0.012 0.004 0.017 0.019 0.023 -0.013 0.01 -0.01 0.006 scienceAI 5 ngcm 12 0.003 0.003 -0.001 0.015 -0.006 0.015 0.001 -0.007 -0.012 0.009 0.005 0.007 scienceAI 5 zephyr 13 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.008 -0.004 0.01 0.008 -0.003 -0.004 0.006 0.0 0.0 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather2 14 -0.091 -0.104 -0.134 -0.066 -0.048 -0.006 -0.108 -0.08 -0.09 -0.145 -0.125 -0.094 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather 19 -0.325 -0.364 -0.326 -0.319 -0.297 -0.261 -0.23 -0.207 -0.285 -0.412 -0.422 -0.379 HAPPY 7 AZN 15 -0.257 -0.264 -0.301 -0.602 -0.201 -0.014 -0.266 -0.272 -0.374 -0.201 -0.271 -0.459 WindBorne 8 WeatherMesh 16 -0.289 -0.254 -0.18 -0.54 -0.212 -0.756 -0.208 -0.278 -0.288 -0.142 -0.154 -0.53 JR 9 slowMamba 17 -0.303 -0.273 -0.285 -0.292 -0.395 -0.353 -0.364 -0.351 -0.387 -0.214 -0.27 -0.223 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S1 18 -0.31 -0.291 -0.349 -0.341 -0.332 -0.234 -0.341 -0.284 -0.243 -0.321 -0.361 -0.344 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S3 21 -0.404 -0.452 -0.36 -0.313 -0.365 -0.425 -0.333 -0.285 -0.429 -0.504 -0.419 -0.385 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S2 22 -0.464 -0.467 -0.49 -0.476 -0.378 -0.521 -0.45 -0.422 -0.508 -0.474 -0.462 -0.406
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
