Flood Summary Products Overview

5-year exceedance < 48 h indicates the probability of flooding (based on the total probability signal after the different forecast inputs are combined with appropriate weights) in the following 48 h, a lead time range for which formal notifications are not issued. Only shown for points with upstream area above 50 km2 and 1.5-year return period threshold exceeding 1 m3/s.

5-year exceedance > 48 h indicates the probability of flooding (based on the total probability signal after the different forecast inputs are combined with appropriate weights) from lead time 2 to 7 days, when formal notifications are issued.  Only shown for points with upstream area above 50 km2 and 1.5-year return period threshold exceeding 1 m3/s.

The flood probability layer shows the combined flood signal, based on the total probability (after the different forecast inputs are combined with appropriate weights). The three main colour groups indicate the expected forecast category (2-year:yellow, 5-year: red, 20-year: purple), which is the highest, that has the minimum probability threshold exceeded (50% for 2-year and 30% for 5- and 20-year). The colour intensities (three for each flood categories) indicate the probabilities of the corresponding expected flood categories. Only shown for points with upstream area above 50 km2 and 1.5-year return period threshold exceeding 1 m3/s.

Map based on local river gauging stations

Estimated flood extent at 90m resolution based on forecasted flood magnitude and not considering the role of flood defences. Note: If EFAS doesn’t forecast significant flood impact the layer will be empty. (More information).

Potential impact of floods on population, land use (agriculture, urban) and infrastructures (major roads). Impacts are based on the rapid flood mapping layer (above) and aggregated over NUTS regions. The level of flood risk is derived from the combination of expected impacts and likelihood. Note: If EFAS doesn't forecast significant flood impact the layer will be empty. (More information).

Reporting Points where forecast outputs are available. Yellow, Red and purple squares highlight stations where the flow is forecasted to exceed respectively the EFAS 2, 5 and 20-year return period thresholds. Dark outlines indicate a threshold exceedance within the next two days. The labels show the forecast total probability (combined forecast signal from the different input models) and its tendency over the last 2 forecasts (arrows). Grey (blue) squares are stations where (real-time post-processed) forecast hydrographs are available. For these points, yellow, red or purple outlines signify that the flow is forecasted to exceed the EFAS return period thresholds, but they do not meet the criteria to be flood reporting points. (More information).

The layer aggregates tweets about floods in a specific area. Data collection is triggered on the basis of weather forecasts. Each tweet's text likelihood of being about a flood is classified using ML models (scale 0 to 1). Each tweet is geotagged using either the location mentioned in its text or the coordinates of the tweet itself. If the location extracted is out of the administrative areas for which the collection is triggered, the tweet will be discarded from further analysis. Geotagged tweets are grouped into 3 categories, low (flood relevance prob < 0.2) - mid (0.2-0.8) - high (>0.8) for each area. According to the ratio between number of tweets in 'mid' bucket and 'high' bucket (mandatory more than 10 in any case) the administrative area is 'colored' in grey (low>1), orange (high>5 X mid) or red (high>9 X mid). Finally, for regions in red or orange, a script extracts the 5 most representative tweets. The layer is updated every 30 minutes

Reporting points indicating the timing of the maximum discharge signal (within the next 1-2 days; 3-5 days; >5 days). Roman numbers denote when exactly the maximum discharge is expected in the forecast. The colour of the numbers denotes the flood category (alert level) expected in the forecast.