Flood Summary Products
| Product name | Description (established over forecast horizon) | Outputs | Forecasting horizon | Forecast model |
Medium-range | 5-year exceedance < 48 h | 5-year exceedance < 48 h indicates the probability of flooding in the following 48 h, a lead time range for which formal notifications are not issued. | Map based on LISFLOOD river network | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) ECMWF-DET (1) DWD-DET (1) |
Medium-range | 5-year exceedance > 48 h | 5-year exceedance > 48 h indicates the probability of flooding from lead time 2 to 7 days, when formal notifications are issued. | Map based on LISFLOOD river network | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) ECMWF-DET (1) DWD-DET (1) |
Medium-range | The flood probability layer shows pixels in the river network with a minimum upstream area of 50 km² where EFAS forecasts a flood, indicating both the flood recurrence and total exceedance probability. | Map based on LISFLOOD river network | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) ECMWF-DET (1) DWD-DET (1) | |
| National Flood Monitoring | Map based on local river gauging stations | NA | ||
Medium-range | Estimated flood extent at 90m resolution based on forecasted flood magnitude and not considering the role of flood defences. Note: If EFAS doesn’t forecast significant flood impact the layer will be empty. (More information). | Map based on MERIT-Hydro spatial grid | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) | |
Medium-range | Potential impact of floods on population, land use (agriculture, urban) and infrastructures (major roads). Impacts are based on the rapid flood mapping layer (above) and aggregated over NUTS regions. The level of flood risk is derived from the combination of expected impacts and likelihood. Note: If EFAS doesn't forecast significant flood impact the layer will be empty. (More information).
| Map based on NUTS regions Table of impact statistics | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) | |
Medium-range | Reporting Points where forecast outputs are available. Yellow, Red and purple squares highlight stations where the flow is forecasted to exceed respectively the EFAS 2, 5 and 20-year return period thresholds. Dark outlines indicate a threshold exceedance within the next two days. The labels show the ECMWF-ENS (left) and COSMO-LEPS (right) forecast probabilities and the forecast probability tendency over the last 3 forecasts (arrows). Grey (blue) squares are stations where (real-time post-processed) forecast hydrographs are available. For these points, yellow, red or purple outlines signify that the flow is forecasted to exceed the EFAS return period thresholds, but they do not meet the criteria to be flood reporting points. (More information). | Map based on flood probability signal and reporting point stations Graph of ensemble hydrograph (in return period scale) for each reporting point Graphs of ensemble upstream rainfall, snow melt and temperature Graphs of overview in forecast signal Graph of overview of forecast persistence | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) ECMWF-DET (1) DWD-DET (1) | |
Medium-range | The layer aggregates tweets about floods in a specific area. Data collection is triggered on the basis of weather forecasts. Each tweet's text likelihood of being about a flood is classified using ML models (scale 0 to 1). Each tweet is geotagged using either the location mentioned in its text or the coordinates of the tweet itself. If the location extracted is out of the administrative areas for which the collection is triggered, the tweet will be discarded from further analysis. Geotagged tweets are grouped into 3 categories, low (flood relevance prob < 0.2) - mid (0.2-0.8) - high (>0.8) for each area. According to the ratio between number of tweets in 'mid' bucket and 'high' bucket (mandatory more than 10 in any case) the administrative area is 'colored' in grey (low>1), orange (high>5 X mid) or red (high>9 X mid). Finally, for regions in red or orange, a script extracts the 5 most representative tweets. The layer is updated every 30 minutes | Map based on administrative area Graph | Today | NA | |
Medium-range
| Threshold level exceedance ongoing | Reporting points where maximum discharge is expected today (within the next 1-2 days; 3-5 days; >5 days). Roman numbers denote when exactly maximum discharge is expected. Colour denotes the highest alert level expected by a certain forecast.
| Map based on flood probability signal | Today, 1-2 days; 3-5 days; 5-10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) ECMWF-DET (1) DWD-DET (1) |