Real-time forecasts

Release dates:
ECMWF:  on the 6th of each month at 12UTC
All other forecast systems:  on the 10th of each month at 12UTC

The details of each forecasting system correspond to the values of the "system" keyword (as used both in the CDS API and on the CDS interactive download forms). A full description of the use of that keyword and its correspondence with the different forecast systems names is available from the "Description of the C3S seasonal multi-system" page.

Nominal Start DatesC3S multi-system operational components ('system' keyword values)
ECMWFMétéo-FranceUK MetOfficeDWDCMCCNCEPJMAECCCBOM
September 2017 - October 20174512





November 2017 - April 20185512 (1)





May 2018 - October 20185513





November 2018 - April 2019561323



May 2019 - September 20195614 (2)23



October 2019 - April 20205714232


May 2020 - September 20205715232


October 2020571523522

November 2020 - February 20215715213522

March 2021 - April 202157600213522

May 2021 - June 202157600213522

1 and 2


July 2021 - November 202158600213522

1 and 2


December 2021 - January 202258600213522

2 and 3


February 202258600213523

2 and 3


March 2022 - October 202258601213523

2 and 3


November 2022 - Februrary 202351 (3)8601213523

2 and 3


March 2023(4) - February 2024518602213523

2 and 3


March 2024 - June 2024518603213523

2 and 3


July 2024518603
3523

 


August 2024 - February 2025518603213523

4 and 5


March 2025518604213523

4 and 5


April 2025518604223523

4 and 5


May 2025 - present519604223523

4 and 5

2










Legend:

bold fontforecast systems introduced for the first time at the beginning of the nominal start dates range
non-bold fontforecast systems that were excluded from the multi-system at that time

Notes:

(1) From February 2018: upgrade on data provision: changes in set of parameters available, see column noted with 'C3S-0.1 netcdf' in this link. Data deficiencies fixed, see known issues D2 and D3.
(2) Data deficiencies fixed, see known issue D9.
(3) Due to technical reasons, a new version of ECMWF SEAS5 data has been created using the keyword system=51. 

Starting from November 2022 a new version of ECMWF SEAS5 output has been introduced in C3S. This new version (v5.1) has been labelled with the keyword system=51 

  • What are the changes in this new version of ECMWF SEAS5 data?
    • A different interpolation tool has been used to produce the 1-degree grid, both for hindcasts and real-time forecasts.
    • A new 1-degree grid, now consistent with the grid available from the other participating forecast systems. Specifically, it will have grid-points centered at half-degree latitude/longitude, and hence it has 180 values in the latitude coordinate (from -89.5 to 89.5) instead of the current 181 values (from -90 to 90)
    • A couple of additions to complete the list of available variables: Top solar incoming radiation and 1000hPa level for the 5 variables available at pressure levels. Additionally, on top of the values of runoff, for SEAS5.1 both sub-surface and surface runoff will be also available.


  • What are the implications for users of ECMWF SEAS5 data? 
    • (warning) From November 2022, only system=51 real-time forecast data will be available from the CDS
    • (warning) Users will need to use system=51 hindcast data alongside the new real-time forecasts.
      Data from the current version (system=5 ) should not be used, so those users with previously downloaded hindcast data will need to download the new version.
  • Why have these changes been introduced?
    • When ECMWF SEAS5 was released in 2017, the C3S 1-degree version was created with the default interpolation tool (emoslib ) available from MARS. With the migration of ECMWF computing infrastructure to its new Data Centre in Bologna, this tool has been discontinued. That means new real-time forecasts produced after the migration can't be produced anymore in a way consistent with the available SEAS5 hindcast in the CDS. After careful evaluation of the impact of the interpolation, it was decided to create a new version of the hindcast data. This has been labelled as SEAS5.1 and encoded with keyword system=51.
    • With this new version of SEAS5 hindcast, a couple of additional improvements were also included:
      • A new 1-degree grid consistent with the one provided for other forecast systems (see details above)
      • A couple of additions to the list of variables (see details above).

(4) From March 2023 a dataset with ocean variables is available from the CDS catalogue (see details on availability here).

Hindcasts

Incomplete set of start dates

In the next table it is shown what nominal start dates are available from those forecast system which don't have a complete set of 12 nominal start dates available on the CDS.

Such unavailability is due to different reasons: some forecast systems produce their hindcasts on-the-fly close to the time when it is released the real-time forecast they go with; some others have been recently introduced in production and not all nominal star dates have been either run by their producing centre or processed and archived by C3S; and also there is a small list of forecast systems that were discontinued before all their start dates were processed by C3S.

Nominal start date
(operational systems)
Météo-FranceMet Office(a)DWDBOMNominal start date
(discontinued systems)
ECMWFMet Office (a)ECCC
System 9
(system=9)
GloSea6
(system=604)
GCFS2.2
(system=22)

ACCESS-S2  (system=2)

System 4
(system=4)
GloSea5-GC2-LI
(system=15)
GEM-NEMO
(system=1)
January(error) (error)  (error) (error) January(error)(tick)(c)(error)
February(error) (error) (error) (error) February(error)(tick)(error)
March(error) (tick) (tick) (tick) March(error)(error)(error)
April(tick) (tick) (tick) (tick) April(error)(error)(error)
May(tick)(tick)  (tick)  (tick) May(error)(tick)(tick)
June(tick)(tick) (tick)  (tick)June(error)(tick)(tick)
July(error)(error) (error) (error) July(error)(tick)(tick)
August(error)(error) (error) (error) August(error)(tick)(tick)
September(error)(error) (error) (error) September(tick)(tick)(tick)
October(error)(error) (error) (error) October(tick)(tick)(tick)
November(error)(error) (error) (error) November(error)(tick)(tick)
December(error)(error) (error) (error) December(error)(tick)(error)

NOTE

(tick) *
Currently these data are temporarily only available using CDS API and may appear as (partially or totally) unavailable in the CDS interactive forms.

Complete set of start dates
OriginForecast systems
ECMWF

SEAS5 (system=5)
SEAS5 (system=51)(b)

Météo-FranceSystem5 (system=5)
System6 (system=6)
System7 (system=7)
System8 (system=8)
UK Met Office(a)(c)GloSea5-GC2 (system=12,13)
GloSea5-GC2-LI (system=14)
GloSea6 (system=600,601,602,603)
DWDGCFS2.0 (system=2)
GCFS2.1 (system=21)
CMCCSPSv3 (system=3)
SPSv3.5 (system=35)
NCEPCFSv2 (system=2)
JMA

CPS2 (system=2)
CPS3 (system=3)

ECCC

CanCM4i (system=2)
GEM5-NEMO (system=3)
CanESM5.1p1bc (system=4)
GEM5.2-NEMO (system=5)

(a) For the Met Office contribution, due to the production of hindcasts "on-the-fly", the CDS keyword 'system' does not have the same meaning as for the other contributors. More details here.
(b) Due to technical reasons, a new version of ECMWF SEAS5 data has been created using the keyword system=51. See details on Announcements (date 12/October/2022)
(c) Hindcast data for January 1993 is not available from MetOffice forecast systems (see "known issue" G4 on the data gaps section)

NOTE

Detailed information about the dates available as hindcasts or real-time forecasts for each individual forecast system can be found in Start dates available in the CDS per forecast system


Nominal Start Dates

For systems with lagged ensembles having multiple start dates, the "nominal" start date is assigned as follows:

Météo-France (all systems):

  • Forecasts/Hindcasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised in the last weeks of month M-1 and on the 1st of month M

NOTE: Even though the different members of all Météo-France forecasting system ensembles are initialized using a lagged approach, the real start dates are not revealed to the users, so all members are encoded as if they were initialized on the 1st of the month

UK MetOffice (all systems):

  • Forecasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M and all available members with start dates back to, and including, the 2nd of month M-1
    • Note that even though just the most recent 50 members are used for C3S products, the complete set of members are available through the CDS
  • Hindcasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M and on the 25th, 17th and 9th of month M-1

NCEP:

  • Forecasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M and all available members with start dates back to, and including, the 2nd of month M-1
    • Note that even though just the most recent 52 members are used for C3S products, the complete set of members are available through the CDS
  • Hindcasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M (if available) and on all start days from month M-1 except the 1st (see table below)
Nominal start monthDates used for C3S productsAdditionally available dates
JANUARY

1 January; 27, 22 and 17 December

12, 7 and 2 December
FEBRUARY31, 26, 21 and 16 January11 and 6 January
MARCH25, 20, 15 and 10 February5 February
APRIL1 April; 27, 22 and 17 March12, 7 and 2 March
MAY1 May; 26, 21 and 16 April11 and 6 April
JUNE31, 26, 21 and 16 May11 and 6 May
JULY30, 25, 20 and 15 June10 and 5 June
AUGUST30, 25, 20 and 15 July10 and 5 July
SEPTEMBER29, 24, 19 and 14 August9 and 4 August
OCTOBER28, 23, 18 and 13 September8 and 3 September
NOVEMBER28, 23, 18 and 13 October8 and 3 October
DECEMBER27, 22, 17 and 12 November7 and 2 November

JMA:

  • Forecasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M (if available) and on all start days from month M-1 except the 1st
    • Note that even though only a subset using the most recent members is used for C3S products, the complete set of members is available through the CDS
      • For CPS2 the subset includes 52 members (4 start dates)
      • For CPS3 the subset includes 55 members (11 start dates)
  • Hindcasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 2 available start dates from month M-1

See details about available dates from JMA at section 6 (Other relevant information) of the forecasting system description.

Bureau of Meteorology:

  • Forecasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M and on the last 10 days of month M-1
    • Note that even though just the most recent 55 members are used for C3S products, the complete set of members are available through the CDS
  • Hindcasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M and on the last 8 days of month M-1
    • Note that for nominal March, both non-leap years and leap years use the same 8 days of February (i.e. 29th February on leap years is not used)


This document has been produced in the context of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

The activities leading to these results have been contracted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, operator of C3S on behalf of the European Union (Delegation agreement signed on 11/11/2014). All information in this document is provided "as is" and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose.

The users thereof use the information at their sole risk and liability. For the avoidance of all doubt, the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts have no liability in respect of this document, which is merely representing the author's view.