Real-time forecasts
Release dates:
ECMWF: on the 6th of each month at 12UTC
All other forecast systems: on the 10th of each month at 12UTC
The details of each forecasting system correspond to the values of the "system" keyword (as used both in the CDS API and on the CDS interactive download forms). A full description of the use of that keyword and its correspondence with the different forecast systems names is available from the "Description of the C3S seasonal multi-system" page.
Nominal Start Dates | C3S multi-system operational components ('system' keyword values) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ECMWF | Météo-France | UK MetOffice | DWD | CMCC | NCEP | JMA | ECCC | BOM | |
September 2017 - October 2017 | 4 | 5 | 12 | ||||||
November 2017 - April 2018 | 5 | 5 | 12 (1) | ||||||
May 2018 - October 2018 | 5 | 5 | 13 | ||||||
November 2018 - April 2019 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 3 | ||||
May 2019 - September 2019 | 5 | 6 | 14 (2) | 2 | 3 | ||||
October 2019 - April 2020 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
May 2020 - September 2020 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
October 2020 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 35 | 2 | 2 | ||
November 2020 - February 2021 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 2 | ||
March 2021 - April 2021 | 5 | 7 | 600 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 2 | ||
May 2021 - June 2021 | 5 | 7 | 600 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 1 and 2 | |
July 2021 - November 2021 | 5 | 8 | 600 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 1 and 2 | |
December 2021 - January 2022 | 5 | 8 | 600 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 2 and 3 | |
February 2022 | 5 | 8 | 600 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 2 and 3 | |
March 2022 - October 2022 | 5 | 8 | 601 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 2 and 3 | |
November 2022 - Februrary 2023 | 51 (3) | 8 | 601 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 2 and 3 | |
March 2023(4) - February 2024 | 51 | 8 | 602 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 2 and 3 | |
March 2024 - June 2024 | 51 | 8 | 603 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 2 and 3 | |
July 2024 | 51 | 8 | 603 | 35 | 2 | 3 |
| ||
August 2024 - February 2025 | 51 | 8 | 603 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 4 and 5 | |
March 2025 | 51 | 8 | 604 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 4 and 5 | |
April 2025 | 51 | 8 | 604 | 22 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 4 and 5 | |
May 2025 - present | 51 | 9 | 604 | 22 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 4 and 5 | 2 |
Legend:
bold font | forecast systems introduced for the first time at the beginning of the nominal start dates range |
non-bold font | forecast systems that were excluded from the multi-system at that time |
Notes:
(1) From February 2018: upgrade on data provision: changes in set of parameters available, see column noted with 'C3S-0.1 netcdf' in this link. Data deficiencies fixed, see known issues D2 and D3.
(2) Data deficiencies fixed, see known issue D9.
(3) Due to technical reasons, a new version of ECMWF SEAS5 data has been created using the keyword system=51.
(4) From March 2023 a dataset with ocean variables is available from the CDS catalogue (see details on availability here).
Hindcasts
Incomplete set of start dates
In the next table it is shown what nominal start dates are available from those forecast system which don't have a complete set of 12 nominal start dates available on the CDS.
Such unavailability is due to different reasons: some forecast systems produce their hindcasts on-the-fly close to the time when it is released the real-time forecast they go with; some others have been recently introduced in production and not all nominal star dates have been either run by their producing centre or processed and archived by C3S; and also there is a small list of forecast systems that were discontinued before all their start dates were processed by C3S.
Nominal start date (operational systems) | Météo-France | Met Office(a) | DWD | BOM | Nominal start date (discontinued systems) | ECMWF | Met Office (a) | ECCC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
System 9 (system=9) | GloSea6 (system=604) | GCFS2.2 (system=22) | ACCESS-S2 (system=2) | System 4 (system=4) | GloSea5-GC2-LI (system=15) | GEM-NEMO (system=1) | ||
January | January | |||||||
February | February | |||||||
March | March | |||||||
April | April | |||||||
May | May | |||||||
June | June | |||||||
July | July | |||||||
August | August | |||||||
September | September | |||||||
October | October | |||||||
November | November | |||||||
December | December |
NOTE
*
Currently these data are temporarily only available using CDS API and may appear as (partially or totally) unavailable in the CDS interactive forms.
Complete set of start dates
Origin | Forecast systems |
---|---|
ECMWF | SEAS5 (system=5) |
Météo-France | System5 (system=5) System6 (system=6) System7 (system=7) System8 (system=8) |
UK Met Office(a)(c) | GloSea5-GC2 (system=12,13) GloSea5-GC2-LI (system=14) GloSea6 (system=600,601,602,603) |
DWD | GCFS2.0 (system=2) GCFS2.1 (system=21) |
CMCC | SPSv3 (system=3) SPSv3.5 (system=35) |
NCEP | CFSv2 (system=2) |
JMA | CPS2 (system=2) |
ECCC | CanCM4i (system=2) |
(a) For the Met Office contribution, due to the production of hindcasts "on-the-fly", the CDS keyword 'system' does not have the same meaning as for the other contributors. More details here.
(b) Due to technical reasons, a new version of ECMWF SEAS5 data has been created using the keyword system=51. See details on Announcements (date 12/October/2022)
(c) Hindcast data for January 1993 is not available from MetOffice forecast systems (see "known issue" G4 on the data gaps section)
NOTE
Detailed information about the dates available as hindcasts or real-time forecasts for each individual forecast system can be found in Start dates available in the CDS per forecast system
Nominal Start Dates
For systems with lagged ensembles having multiple start dates, the "nominal" start date is assigned as follows:
Météo-France (all systems):
- Forecasts/Hindcasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised in the last weeks of month M-1 and on the 1st of month M
NOTE: Even though the different members of all Météo-France forecasting system ensembles are initialized using a lagged approach, the real start dates are not revealed to the users, so all members are encoded as if they were initialized on the 1st of the month
UK MetOffice (all systems):
- Forecasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M and all available members with start dates back to, and including, the 2nd of month M-1
- Note that even though just the most recent 50 members are used for C3S products, the complete set of members are available through the CDS
- Hindcasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M and on the 25th, 17th and 9th of month M-1
NCEP:
- Forecasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M and all available members with start dates back to, and including, the 2nd of month M-1
- Note that even though just the most recent 52 members are used for C3S products, the complete set of members are available through the CDS
- Hindcasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M (if available) and on all start days from month M-1 except the 1st (see table below)
Nominal start month | Dates used for C3S products | Additionally available dates |
---|---|---|
JANUARY | 1 January; 27, 22 and 17 December | 12, 7 and 2 December |
FEBRUARY | 31, 26, 21 and 16 January | 11 and 6 January |
MARCH | 25, 20, 15 and 10 February | 5 February |
APRIL | 1 April; 27, 22 and 17 March | 12, 7 and 2 March |
MAY | 1 May; 26, 21 and 16 April | 11 and 6 April |
JUNE | 31, 26, 21 and 16 May | 11 and 6 May |
JULY | 30, 25, 20 and 15 June | 10 and 5 June |
AUGUST | 30, 25, 20 and 15 July | 10 and 5 July |
SEPTEMBER | 29, 24, 19 and 14 August | 9 and 4 August |
OCTOBER | 28, 23, 18 and 13 September | 8 and 3 September |
NOVEMBER | 28, 23, 18 and 13 October | 8 and 3 October |
DECEMBER | 27, 22, 17 and 12 November | 7 and 2 November |
JMA:
- Forecasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M (if available) and on all start days from month M-1 except the 1st
- Note that even though only a subset using the most recent members is used for C3S products, the complete set of members is available through the CDS
- For CPS2 the subset includes 52 members (4 start dates)
- For CPS3 the subset includes 55 members (11 start dates)
- Note that even though only a subset using the most recent members is used for C3S products, the complete set of members is available through the CDS
- Hindcasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 2 available start dates from month M-1
See details about available dates from JMA at section 6 (Other relevant information) of the forecasting system description.
Bureau of Meteorology:
- Forecasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M and on the last 10 days of month M-1
- Note that even though just the most recent 55 members are used for C3S products, the complete set of members are available through the CDS
- Hindcasts: nominal month M includes the members initialised on the 1st of month M and on the last 8 days of month M-1
- Note that for nominal March, both non-leap years and leap years use the same 8 days of February (i.e. 29th February on leap years is not used)
This document has been produced in the context of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
The activities leading to these results have been contracted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, operator of C3S on behalf of the European Union (Delegation agreement signed on 11/11/2014). All information in this document is provided "as is" and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose.
The users thereof use the information at their sole risk and liability. For the avoidance of all doubt, the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts have no liability in respect of this document, which is merely representing the author's view.