Status: Finalised Material from: Linus
1. Impact
Around 17 May south-eastern Europe experienced a heat-wave, with temperatures reaching above 40 degrees.
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 2-metre maximum temperature on 17 May.
The plot below shows forecast evolution for 2-metre maximum temperature for Nicosia (Cyprus) on 17 May. Ensemble distribution (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate distribution (red box-and-whisker).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below shows weekly temperature anomalies for 11-17 May in extended-range forecasts.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Very good extended-range signal for the event