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ECMWF is now actively planning the implementation of the new cycle 46r1 version of the integrated forecasting system (IFS).

IFS cycle 46r1 is an upgrade with contributions from many of our scientific streams, including major changes in data assimilation, in the use of observations, and in modelling. Major changes in IFS cycle 46r1 are the introduction of the continuous Data Assimilation scheme and the upgrade to a 50 members Ensemble Data Assimilation system. The new cycle does not contain changes of resolutions.

The implementation of cycle 46r1 is planned for early June 2019.

A dedicated information page for this change is available at

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+46r1

Please note that we are planning two live-streamed seminars, the first one describing the scientific changes in the new cycle and the second one to cover its meteorological impact. Details are available at the above link.

The "Known IFS forecasting issues" web page, and the online "Forecast User Guide" have both just been updated by ECMWF. The changes relate in part to model cycle 45r1 which went live in early June.

The User Guide includes new sections, which describe how to use (a) new Lightning diagnostics, and (b) the new Vertical Profiles tool within ecCharts.

ECMWF informed all ecCharts users on the latest update to this service.

Highlight of the June 2018 update is the addition of ENS vertical profiles. New layers for ENS, and HRES have also been added and other improvements made.

Full details of this update are available at ecCharts updates - June 2018

ECMWF Forecast User Guide

A new web-based ECMWF Forecast User Guide has been released today:

To read more about this:   "In Focus" news item

To see the guide:   Forecast User Guide - Introduction

We are pleased to inform you that ECMWF is making good progress with 
the forthcoming implementation of cycle 45r1 of the Integrated 
Forecasting System (IFS).

The cycle is now entering the release candidate phase. Test data are 
available through the dissemination.

Details of the meteorological and technical changes in this cycle, 
together with information about the forecast performance (including 
scorecards), can be found at:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+45r1

The implementation of the new cycle is scheduled for Tuesday 5 June 2018.

The first operational run using the new cycle will be the 06 UTC 
analysis and forecast in the Boundary Conditions Optional Programme
on 5 June followed by the 12 UTC main assimilation and forecast. The 
monthly forecast extension to the ensemble will be run with the
new IFS cycle for the first time the following Thursday 7 June 2018.

Please note that there will be no further communication on the 
implementation of 45r1 unless the implementation date changes.
ECMWF's new Data Centre will be located in Bologna, Italy, by 2019.

We are glad to announce a new dedicated wiki page containing user information on the migration of
ECMWF's services to Bologna:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/UDOC/Bologna+-+New+Data+Centre

May we encourage you to "watch" the above web page to obtain notification of further updates on the Computer users services in
Bologna.

We have also created a mailing list to keep you informed about the relocation in Bologna. To subscribe to or unsubscribe from this
list, please send an email to bologna-data-centre-users-request at lists.ecmwf.int with the word subscribe or unsubscribe as Subject.

Many of the systems and services currently available in Reading will be moved to Bologna. We have agreed to decommission a number of
older software packages with the relocation to Bologna. The two main software packages not ported to Bologna will be SMS and
EMOSLIB. We have started advertising MIR, in replacement of EMOSLIB and will contact SMS users about the migration to ecflow. See
the above link for more details on the services to be decommissioned.

If you have any queries about the migration of ECMWF's services to Bologna, please do contact our Service Desk at servicedesk @ ecmwf.int.

Best regards,
Dominique Lucas, for User Support
Dear Colleagues,

ECMWF is preparing for the forthcoming implementation of the 45r1
version of the integrated forecasting system (IFS).

IFS Cycle 45r1 is an upgrade with many scientific contributions,
including changes in data assimilation, in the use of observations, and 
in modelling, e.g. the coupling of the ocean and atmospheric models in 
HRES. New lightning and CAPE fields are also available with this new cycle.

The new cycle does not contain changes of resolutions.

The implementation is planned for 5 June 2018.

A dedicated information web page for this change has been prepared and
is available at:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+45r1

May we encourage you to "watch" the above web page to obtain
notification of further updates.

A mailing list has also been created to inform interested parties about
operational changes taking place at ECMWF.

To subscribe to or unsubscribe, please send an email to:

forecast_changes-request@lists.ecmwf.int <mailto:forecast_changes-request@lists.ecmwf.int>

with the word subscribe or unsubscribe as Subject.

Best regards

Dr. Alfred Hofstadler
Acting Director of Forecasts

ECMWF reported on the status of some requests put forward by users during the User Voice Corner feedback session at the UEF meeting held in June 2017.

UEF 2017 - User Voice Corner (feedback session) follow up provides a detailed description of the current status.

ECMWF informed all ecCharts users on the latest update to this service.

Several new layers for ENS, ENS Extended and HRES have been added and other improvements made.

Full details of this update are available at ecCharts updates - November 2017

On the afternoon of November 1st ECMWF uncovered a technical problem that had been affecting the integrity of the some probability charts on the ECMWF web site (ecCharts output was not affected). This had happened for runs from all data times from 23rd October 12UTC.

The charts affected were the clickable probability charts from the ensemble (ENS), for max wind gust and for total precipitation.

On some charts the corruption was clear. On others it was not. Users must assume that all charts in these categories, for all areas, were incorrect.

We sincerely apologise to all users for this issue, which was discovered on the afternoon of 1st November. Following discovery we acted swiftly to rectify the problem and all output beginning with the 00UTC 2nd November runs is correct again.

During today (2nd November) ECMWF will be systematically over-writing all the corrupted charts, from the earlier data times, with corrected versions. We expect that this process will have completed by about 18UTC.

eLearning at ECMWF

To meet the training needs of our Member and Co-operating States, ECMWF started at the beginning of 2017 a project aimed at producing a set of publicly available eLearning modules, initially on foundational material for our numerical weather prediction, software and product courses. eLearning has a number of potential benefits: it can expand the reach of training, and it can give learners flexibility in terms of when, where and how they want to learn. It is a flexible and student-driven kind of learning that relies on effective multimedia resources. It supports diverse learning styles and can complement traditional classroom teaching. eLearning leverages technology to create and design engaging and effective multimedia resources.

The new eLearning modules provide the background knowledge on which face-to-face courses at ECMWF can build. This will enable us to spend the course time on more complex material or to shorten training events to reduce costs for Member States. Other initiatives such as WMO Global Campus and future EUMETNET training programmes may also find the new ECMWF eLearning modules useful as resources to make available to their member states.

The modules are being created in collaboration with instructional designers who are working with ECMWF experts. The instructional design methodology used it that set  out by Mayes & de Freitas (2004), which assumes that information is processed through two channels (auditory and visual) of limited capacity. In order to minimise overload, the learner filters, selects, organises and integrates the information presented in the resources. These assumptions and learning principles are guiding the creation of our eLearning modules.

A set of online modules covering NWP topics, software, ECMWF meteorological archive and Metview (visualisation) is now publicly available on ECMWF website!

Please visit (and forward the link to colleagues):

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/en/learning/education-material/elearning-online-resources

More modules will be added in the following months.  We hope you find these resources useful!


Anna

ECMWF is planning to introduce a new upgrade of the CAMS (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) real-time data assimilation and forecasting system on 26 September 2017.
This upgrade includes various improvements of the aerosol module as well as improvements to the UV forecasts. In addition, some interactions between the aerosol and chemistry schemes have been introduced. More information can be found at https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/implementation-ifs-cycle-43r3cams.

The new system has been running for some months now and the CAMS Validation team has assessed the output to ensure the quality of the analyses and forecasts. The main conclusions are: the new model configuration is an improvement as far as aerosols are concerned. Tropospheric ozone results for the current operational system and the new system generally are very comparable, apart from a wintertime negative high-latitude bias (about 2-5 ppb) compared to the current operational version. In spring, ozone values in the operational system and the new system are very similar. The other trace gas concentrations (CO, NO2, HCHO) show minor differences. The validation report is available from the CAMS web site.

Users wanting to access the output from the current test system can find the data from 1 June 2017 onward directly in MARS or through our Web API service as described here: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/COPSRV/Accessing+CAMS+43r3+test+data.


For users, who are registered to our operational ftp server, we now also provide daily global test data in the CAMS_GLOBAL_TEST and CAMS_EUROPE_BC_TEST directories.

For any questions, please contact the CAMS Service Desk at copernicus-support@ecmwf.int.

The fifth generation of the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system, in short SEAS5, will be introduced in the autumn of 2017, replacing System 4, which was released in 2011.

SEAS5 includes updated versions of the atmospheric (IFS) and interactive ocean (NEMO) models and adds the interactive sea ice model LIM2. The IFS uses a new grid and horizontal resolution has been increased (details below). Ocean horizontal and vertical resolution have also been increased.  Ocean and land initial conditions have been updated, and the re-forecast ensemble size has been increased from 15 to 25. While re-forecasts span 1981 to 2016, the re-forecast period used to calibrate the forecasts when creating products will use the more recent period 1993 to 2016. SEAS5 highlights include a marked improvement in SST drift, especially in the tropical Pacific, and improvements in the prediction skill of Arctic sea ice.

For more detailed information and timetable visit Implementation of Seasonal Forecast SEAS5

 

On Friday 9 June ECMWF had a delay for 12z HRES forecast.  This was the result of a failure in the Pressure Bias correction scheme applied to conventional surface observations.  To minimize any further delays the scheme was temporarily turned off, until a problem with some specific observations was identified.  These observations were then excluded and operations continued with the  scheme turned back on Sunday morning starting from the 06z run.

During the period the bias correction scheme was switched off, more surface pressure observations than normal ware rejected by the data assimilation and we also found a degraded fit of the analysis to the (non-bias corrected) observations. We have now reached the point when we can verify the affected forecasts, and although there maybe local degradations we do not see any significant impact in the hemispheric forecast scores currently.