We are pleased to announce the implementation of IFS Cycle 48r1, the first new scientific model upgrade in ECWMF's Data Centre in Bologna, for June 2023, with a three-month Release Candidate Phase starting in March. Precise dates will be given in due course.

As highlighted in a recent news article, Cycle 48r1 delivers a significant upgrade. Many of the scientific improvements are related to the enhancement of the ensemble forecasts, thus making them our main output in the medium range. Major technical and configuration changes relevant to end-users include:

  • Increase of the horizontal resolution of the medium-range ensemble from 18 km to 9 km
  • Daily runs of the extended-range ensemble as a separate system from 0 UTC to day 46 with 101 members
  • Two sets of re-forecasts, one for the medium range and one for the extended range, each running twice per week, on Monday and Thursday
  • Introduction of the Golomb-Rice coding compression method, as defined in the CCSDS recommended standard and implemented by the Adaptive Entropy Coding Library (AEC), as the default packing type for all gridded model output in GRIB 2 format

As an introduction to the new model cycle we have scheduled two webinars:

On 2 March, 9:00 UTC, Andy Brown, Director of Research, will introduce Cycle 48r1 and its performance (register here).

On 15 March, 15:00 UTC, Florian Pappenberger, Director of Forecasts, and Matthieu Chevallier, Head of Evaluation, will present the latest model verification, new products, and technical aspects like the access to test data and the handling of increased ensemble data volumes (register here).

All users of ECMWF forecast products are invited to take note of the details provided in the Cycle 48r1 Implementation page and test their processing chains as early as possible with the test data provided. To get notified of further updates please “watch” the implementation page. 

Please report any issues with this model upgrade and your tests via the ECMWF Support Portal.

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