Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Tim,. .
1. Impact
In the beginning of April western-central Europe experienced a strong cold blast. The cold spell caused problems for vineyards in France for example.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56688031
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 3 to 8 April (all 00UTC).
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 2-metre temperature valid 5-7 April. In the forecast from 30 March the cold air was shifted to the west compared to the shortest forecast.
The plot below shows the evolution of 3-day mean 2-metre temperature for Paris on 5-7 April. The plot includes HRES (red dot), ENS CF (purple dot), ENS distribution (blue) and model climate (red). The forecast from 29 March was problematic and related to a large-scale forecast bust.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show the weekly mean anomaly for 2-metre temperature 5-11 April.
