Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ivan,
1. Impact
On 1 February the storm Ingunn hit Norway and Sweden, and broke wind records in both countries.
https://www.smhi.se/bloggar/vaderleken-2-3336/ingunn-gav-nytt-svenskt-och-norskt-vindrekord-1.204545
2. Description of the event
On this evaluation we will focus on the maximum wind gusts 31 January 12UTC - 1 February 12UTC and mean wind at 00UTC on 1 February. The main location will be 0.25x0.25 degree around Nordoyan (64.8N, 10.5E).
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 29 January 12UTC to 1 February 12UTC, every 12th hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 24-hour maximum wind gusts (31 January 12UTC - 1 February 12UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
The plots below 10-metre mean wind on 1 February 00UTC in observations (first plot) analysis (second plot) and 48-hour forecasts from ENS control (9km), DestinE 4.4 km, AIFS, PanguWeather and Graphcast.
The plots below show 24-hour maximum significant wave height based on 6-hourly steps (31 January 12UTC - 1 February 12UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
Same as above but with forecasts from DestinE4.4km.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for maximum wind gusts on 31 January from different lead times (note different period from other plots due to limitations in EFI).
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 10-metre mean wind at Nordoyan on 1 February 00UTC.
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
DestinE4.4km - purple dot
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
AIFS - pink
PanguWeather - cyan
Graphcast - grey
Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker
Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1600 forecasts.
The plot below shows the maximum significant wave hieght on 31 January 12UTC to 1 February 12UTC for the buoy location outlined in the maps above.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event