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High resolution

Comparison of scores of IFS cycle 41r2 (combination of research experiments and the current e-suite) and IFS cycle 41r1 (the current operational cycle) verified by the respective analyses or radiosonde and SYNOP observations at 00UTC for the period 00 UTC on 1 January 2015 to 12 UTC on 7 February 2016 (637 forecast runs).

    ACCRMSe/STDeSEEPS
Europeagainst
analysis
Geopotential100hPa 
500hPa 
MSL pressure  
Temperature100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
Wind100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
Relative
humidity
300hPa 
700hPa 
against
observations
Temperature100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
2m temperature   
Wind100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
10m wind   
2m dew-point  
Total cloud cover  
24h precipitation  
Extratropical
Northern
Hemisphere
against
analysis
Geopotential100hPa 
500hPa 
MSL pressure  
Temperature100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
Wind100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
10m wind
over ocean
  
Ocean wave
height
 
Ocean wave
period
 
Relative
humidity
300hPa 
700hPa 
against
observations
Temperature100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
2m temperature   
Wind100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
10m wind   
2m dew-point  
Total cloud cover  
24h precipitation  
Extratropical
Southern
Hemisphere
against
analysis
Geopotential100hPa 
500hPa 
MSL pressure  
Temperature100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
Wind100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
10m wind
over ocean
  
Ocean wave
height
 
Ocean wave
period
 
Relative
humidity
300hPa 
700hPa 
against
observations
Temperature100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
2m temperature   
Wind100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
10m wind   
2m dew-point  
Total cloud cover  
24h precipitation  
Tropicsagainst
analysis
Temperature100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
Wind100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
10m wind
over ocean
  
Ocean wave
height
 
Ocean wave
period
 
Relative
humidity
300hPa 
700hPa 
against
observations
Temperature100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
2m temperature   
Wind100hPa 
200hPa 
850hPa 
10m wind   
2m dew-point  
Total cloud cover  
24h precipitation  

 

Score card provides a quick visual overview over the performance of the CY41r2 scores compared to CY41r1. It is a simplified summary of verify error plots of various domains, scores, parameters etc.
Each error plot is converted into a sequence of symbols (e.g. ) where each symbol indicates for given time step whether or not the CY41r2 is significantly better or worse than the CY41r1.
Symbol legend: for a given forecast step... (d: score difference, s: confidence interval width)
CY41r2 better than CY41r1 statistically highly significant (the confidence bar above zero by more than its height )(d/s>3)
CY41r2 better than CY41r1 statistically significant (d/s≥1)
CY41r2 better than CY41r1, yet not statistically significant (d/s≥0.5)
not really any difference between CY41r1 and CY41r2
CY41r2 worse than CY41r1, yet not statistically significant (d/s≤-0.5)
CY41r2 worse than CY41r1 statistically significant (d/s≤-1)
CY41r2 worse than CY41r1 statistically highly significant (the confidence bar below zero by more than its height) (d/s<-3)

Extended HRES scorecard

Comparison for additional domains can be found in the extended HRES scorecards

 

Ensemble

Comparison of scores of IFS cycle 41r2 (current e-suite) and IFS cycle 41r1 (the current operational cycle) verified by the respective analyses or SYNOP observations at 00UTC for the period 00 UTC on 10 August 2015 to 12 UTC on 7 February 2016 (247 forecast runs).

    Continuous
Rank
Probability
Score
Europeagainst
analysis
Wind speed850hPa
Temperature
Geopotential500hPa
1000hPa
against
observations
10m wind 
2m temperature
24h precipitation
Extratropical
Northern
Hemisphere
against
analysis
Wind speed850hPa
Temperature
Geopotential500hPa
1000hPa
against
observations
10m wind 
2m temperature
24h precipitation
Extratropical
Southern
Hemisphere
against
analysis
Wind speed850hPa
Temperature
Geopotential500hPa
1000hPa
against
observations
10m wind 
2m temperature
24h precipitation
Tropicsagainst
analysis
Wind speed850hPa
Temperature
against
observations
10m wind 
2m temperature
24h precipitation

 

Score card provides a quick visual overview over the performance of the CY41r2 scores compared to CY41r1. It is a simplified summary of verify error plots of various domains, scores, parameters etc.
Each error plot is converted into a sequence of symbols (e.g. ) where each symbol indicates for given time step whether or not the CY41r2 is significantly better or worse than the CY41r1.
Symbol legend: for a given forecast step... (d: score difference, s: confidence interval width)
CY41r2 better than CY41r1 statistically highly significant (the confidence bar above zero by more than its height )(d/s>3)
CY41r2 better than CY41r1 statistically significant (d/s≥1)
CY41r2 better than CY41r1, yet not statistically significant (d/s≥0.5)
not really any difference between CY41r1 and CY41r2
CY41r2 worse than CY41r1, yet not statistically significant (d/s≤-0.5)
CY41r2 worse than CY41r1 statistically significant (d/s≤-1)
CY41r2 worse than CY41r1 statistically highly significant (the confidence bar below zero by more than its height) (d/s<-3)

 

 

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