Scorecard for IFS cycle 40r1

Score card provides a quick visual overview over the performance of the Cy40r1 scores compared to Cy38r2. It is a simplified summary of verify error plots of various domains, scores, parameters etc.

Each error plot is converted into a sequence of symbols (e.g. ▼▾▾░░░░▴▲▲) where each symbol indicates for given time step whether or not the Cy40r1 is significantly better or worse than the Cy38r2.

Symbol legend: for a given forecast step... (d: score difference, s: confidence interval width)

▲ Cy40r1 far better than Cy38r2 statistically significant (the confidence bar above zero by more than its height )(d/s>3)
▴ Cy40r1 better than Cy38r2 statistically significant (d/s≥1)
░ Cy40r1 better than Cy38r2, yet not statistically significant (d/s≥0.5)
░ not really any difference between Cy40r1 and Cy38r2
░ Cy40r1 worse than Cy38r2, yet not statistically significant (d/s≤-0.5)
▾ Cy40r1 worse than Cy38r2 statistically significant (d/s≤-1)
▼ Cy40r1 far worse than Cy38r2 statistically significant (the confidence bar below zero by more than its height) (d/s<-3)

Statistical significance evaluated by paired t-test for 95% significance level.