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This has been an interesting  (and still is!) tropical cyclone. Started in the Pacific, rather small and looking not too offensive has deepened and it has been said (still needs to be assessed if true) the category of super-typhoon, just before hitting Okinawa (29th September). Now the typhoon is travelling to the main Japanese mainland east coast.

There are lots of photos on the press. The following is the aftermath of Jelawat in Okinawa:


More photos (worth a look if you are on Facebook!) have been posted by the USA KAdena Airbase

What about ECMWF forecasts?

The forecast from the 25th September indicated the typhoon to intensify and head for Japan. The forecast trajectory matches quite well the observed trajectory as observed on various websites (needs more objective verifications!). The panels on the right are constructed recording the forecast typhoon characteristics as though sitting on the typhoon and travelling with it (Lagrangian specification). Interestingly, for Thursday 27th the Ens forecast indicates a 5% probability of having a super-typhoon (black shading; needs to carefully check the Thursday boxes on the top right panel  (wink)   ). The HighRes forecast is always an outlier (black line in the middle and bottom panel on the right. These two panel show wind and central pressure of the typhoon, respectively)

Forecast base date: 25th September


A more recent forecast shows the progression of the typhoon, which will decay after affecting the East Coast of Japan. Please note (bottom left panel) that after t+120 not many members are tracked (ie the tropical cyclone is weakened and disappeared).

Forecast base date 27th September


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