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On Sunday 30th September I was in Addis Ababa and noticed that the EPSgram for the town had been showing noticeable rain. It rained indeed! The EPSgram for the forecast of the 28th was a little too pessimistic indicating rain for four days in a row. The forecast of the 29th was more specific, with little rain on the 29th and significant rain on the 30th.

Forecast 28th September 2012

Forecast 29th September 2012

 

 

The rain only happened on the Sunday and Monday in the early morning. Interestingly, the EFI had a small signal for an area around Addis Ababa (d+1 for the Sunday), even though the rain was not really extreme. I believe the signal is linked to the timing of the dry season which starts usually end of September/beginning of October and the model climate may not capture it correctly. A small phase shift could be the cause of the EFI signal.

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