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Exercise 2: The operational ECMWF HRES forecast
Forecast performance
Exercise 1 looked at the synoptic development up to the 20-Sept-2012. This exercise looks at the ECMWF HRES forecast from this date and how the IFS model developed the interaction between Hurricane Nadine and the cut-off low.
Enter the folder 'HRES_forecast' in the 'openifs_2018' folder to begin.
Recap
The ECMWF operational deterministic forecast is called HRES. At the time of this case study, the model ran with a spectral resolution of T1279, equivalent to 16km grid spacing.
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Before looking at the ensemble forecasts, first understand the performance of the operational HRES forecast of the time.
Available forecast
Data is provided for a single 5 day forecast starting from 20th Sept 2012, as used in the paper by Pantillon et al. referred to at the start of this tutorial.
Data is provided at the same resolution as the operational model, in order to give the best representation of the Hurricane and cut-off low iterations. This may mean that some plotting will be slow.
Available parameters
A new parameter is total precipitation : tp.
The parameters available in the analyses are also available in the forecast data.
Available plot types
| Panel |
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For this exercise, you will use the metview icons in the folder ' |
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Task 1: Synoptic development
Task 3: Precipitation over France
This task produces a plot similar to Figure 2 in Pantillon et al.
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