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 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Tim, Ivan, Linus

 

 

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Discussed in the following Daily reports:

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2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and short forecasts of 6-hour total precipitation covering 26 September 00UTC to 30 September 00UTC, every 12th hour.

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The plots below show analyses of z500 (contour) and T850 (shade) covering 26 September 00UTC to 30 September 00UTC, every 12th hour.

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Air mass RGB animation from 27 September to 30 September 2018 inclusive.

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3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The first plots below shows (the few) observations of 24-hour precipitation 29 September 06z to 30 September 06z and the following plots HRES forecasts from different initial times valid the same time. The plots also includes MSLP valid at 18UTC on 29  September.

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The plots below show  HRES forecasts for 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 29 September (shade) and MSLP valid 29 September 18UTC (contour).

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3.3 ENS


The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation (29 September).

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The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 29 September.

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3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show the weekly anomalies (24-30 September) of precipitation from extended-range forecasts.

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3.5 Comparison with other centres

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