Versions Compared

Old Version 27

changes.mady.by.user Eduardo Penabad

Saved on

compared with

New Version 28

changes.mady.by.user Anca Brookshaw

Saved on

Key

  • This line was added.
  • This line was removed.
  • Formatting was changed.

...

SYSTEMFORECASTSHINDCASTS
ENSEMBLE SIZE and
START DATES		PRODUCTIONENSEMBLE SIZE and
START DATES		PRODUCTION
ECMWFSystem 451 members start on the 1streal-time15 members start on the 1stfixed dataset
SEAS551 members start on the 1streal-time25 members start on the 1stfixed dataset
Météo-FranceSystem 5
(a)

51 members

   26 start on the first Wednesday after the 19th of the previous month
   25 start on the first Wednesday after the 12th of the previous month

real-time

15 members start on the first Wednesday after the 19th of the previous month

fixed dataset
System 6

51 members

   1 starts on the 1st
   25 start on the 25th
   25 start on the 20th

real-time

25 members

   1 starts on the 1st
   12 start on the 25th
   12 start on the 20th

fixed dataset
Met OfficeGloSea5
(b)		2 members every start each day
(c)		real-time

7 members on the 1st
7 members on the 9th
7 members on the 17th
7 members on the 25th

on-the-fly

produced around 4-6 weeks in advance

CMCCSPSv350 members start on the 1streal-time40 members start on the 1stfixed dataset
DWDGCFS1GCFS2.050 members start on the 1streal-time30 members start on the 1stfixed dataset

...

(b) The production schedule of the Met Office forecasting system doesn't prescribe how to build an ensemble for a specific nominal start date. The following choices are currently in use for the data archived in C3S:
FORECASTS: the most recent 50 members starting on or before the 1st of the month (NOTE: The original daily/subdaily data from all the daily members, and not just those 50, is processed and made available at C3Sthrough the CDS). The monthly mean data is currently encoded and provided in the CDS as if all the members were initialized on the 1st.
HINDCASTS: 28 members (7 starting on the 1st of the month and 7 on each of the 9th,17th and 25th of the previous month)

(c) Due to the flexibility of the Met Office forecasting system, forecast failures on a given date are not usually recovered by re-running the missed forecasts at a later date, but by running more members on one with initial conditions of the following daysday of recovery.
Example: An incident affected the 22 August 2017 forecast so no members are available for that date. Instead, 4 members were started initialised on 23 August 2017.