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The new operational ECWMF ocean analysis system (system 3 or S3) consists of two analysis streams:

  • A historical reanalysis from 1959 which is 09.03.2007e (BRT). It is used to initialize seasonal forecasts.
  • An early delivery ocean analysis, produced daily in near real time (NRT), used to initialize the monthly forecasts.

Although the historical reanalysis goes back to 1959, only the period 1981-2005 is used to initialize the calibrating hindcasts of the S3 seasonal forecasting system (Anderson et al., 2007). The earlier period of S3 ocean analysis will be used to initialize seasonal and decadal predictions within the ENSEMBLES project. As well as providing initial conditions for coupled model forecasts, the S3 ocean re-analysis, based on the synthesis of surface and subsurface ocean observations, surface fluxes from atmospheric analyses and reanalyses, and a general circulation ocean model, constitutes an important resource for climate variability studies.

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ECMWF has produced operationally daily global ocean analyses to provide initial conditions for the seasonal forecasting system since 1997. There have been two versions of the ocean analysis, linked to the operational seasonal forecasting system. System 1 (S1) started in 1997 (Alves et al., 2003) and provided the initial conditions for the first ECMWF operational seasonal forecasting system (Stockdale et al., 1998). System 2 (S2) was introduced in 2001 (Balmaseda 2004), and has provided initial conditions for the ECMWF operational seasonal forecasts since 2002 (Anderson et al. 2003, Oldenborgh et al. 2005a,b, Vialard et al. 2005). A comparison between S2 and S1 ocean analyses is given in Balmaseda 2004. In 2004 an extension of S2 was introduced in order to initialize the monthly forecasting system (Balmaseda 2005, Vitart 2005). In summer 2006 the S3 ocean analysis was implemented operationally (Balmaseda et al 2007).

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Vialard, J., Vitart, F., Balmaseda, M. A., Stockdale, T. N., and Anderson, D. L. T., 2005. An ensemble generation method for seasonal forecasting with an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1379-1395. See also ECMWF Technical Memorandum No 417.

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Vitart
Vitart
Vitart, F., 2005: Monthly Forecast and the summer 2003 heat wave over Europe: a case study. Atmospheric Science Letter, 6(2), 112-117.

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