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At the other end of the spectrum, moving towards the shorter time scales, we have the monthly and medium range forecasting activities, where the demand for ocean initial conditions is increasing. Monthly forecasting activities have stirred quite some interest in the last few years, and the benefits of having an active ocean in the forecasting system has been demonstrated (Vitart et al. 2006, Woolnough et al. 2007). The monthly forecasting system uses the same ocean model as the seasonal forecasting system though there are some differences in the way the ocean initial conditions are produced. In the near future it is planned that the medium range EPS forecasts will also be performed with a coupled model, with the consequent need for real-time ocean initial conditions. The EPS will also have a need for the historical ocean reanalysis, since the reliable prediction of extreme events also requires hindcasts or re-forecasting activities just as is done now for monthly and seasonal forecasting.
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Wolff, J., E. Maier-Reimer and S. Legutke, 1997. The Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation Model. Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Hamburg, Technical Report No. 13.
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