Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, ...
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
Hurricane Dorian formed on 24 August in the central Atlantic, and caused huge damages on Bahamas on 1-2 September. The cyclone later affected the U.S east-coast and also Canada.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dorian
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-49602445
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A radar loop from Bahamas can be found here (thanks to Brian McNoldy, University of Miami): http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/dorian19/Dorian_1-3Sep19_bahamas.gif
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
The assimilation cycle on 28 August 12UTC had problem to determine the position of the cyclone. This was caused by large first-guess errors, as seen in the plot below.
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show tropical cyclone strike probability on 25-28 August, in forecasts from 25 (first plot) to 22 August (last plot).
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