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3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
The plot below shows the track and intensity of Dorian in BestTrack (hourglass) and analysis (circle). The analysis missed the position at 28 August 12UTC when the cyclone was in the Caribbean Sea.
The assimilation cycle on 28 August 12UTC had problem to determine the position of the cyclone. This was caused by large first-guess errors, as seen in the plot below.
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