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Global Climate Models (GCM) can provide us with projections of how the climate of the Earth may change in the future. These results are the main motivation for the international community to take decisions on climate change mitigation. However, the impacts of a changing climate, and the adaptation strategies required to deal with them, will occur on more regional and national scales. This is where Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have an important role to play by providing projections with much greater detail and more accurate representation of localized extreme events.

What are regional climate projections in the CDS?

Regional climate projections are results from regional climate model simulations which have been generated by multiple independent climate research centres in the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling (CORDEX) supported by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These regional climate projections underpin the conclusion of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report that “Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems”.

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