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Photos on the press showed people evacuated with boats and mud and water covering streets and the ground floors of buildings:
How did ECMWF forecasts do?
The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) showed high values three days in advance. The following pdf shows on the left panel the EFI (shading). The red colour indicates the areas where the EFI has its maximum value (EFI=1). The model climate on the right panel tells us the amount of precipitation for the 99th percentile of the climate, which in the area of the flood is between 10 and 20 mm/24h (green shading):
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The EPSgram for a location on the Spanish South-east coast indicates (left panel below) that the accumulated precipitation for a 24 hour period are for the majority of the Ensemble Members well above the climate (thin green line). In fact the forecast for Friday 28th, shows that from the 25th percentile upwards, the accumulated amounts are above the 99th percentile of the climate:
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