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Introduction

What are global climate projections?

Global climate projections are climate model simulations which simulations of the climate system performed with general circulation models which represent physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface. These models may cover the entire globe or a specific region and use information about the external influences on the system. Such simulations have been generated by multiple independent climate research centres in an effort coordinated by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climate projections underpin the conclusion conclusions of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (published in 2013) Assessment Reports that “Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems”.  

The Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

The Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) was established in 1995 by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) to provide climate scientists with a database of coupled Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations.

 The CMIP process involves institutions (such as national meteorological centres or research institutes) from around the world running their climate models with an agreed set of input parameters (forcings). The modelling centres produce a set of standardised output. When combined, when combined these produce a multi-model dataset that can be is shared internationally between modelling centres and the results compared.

 Analysis of the CMIP data allows for improving understanding of

• the climate, including its variability and change,  
• the societal and environmental implications of climate change in terms of impacts, adaptation and vulnerability,
• informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.  

Comparison of different climate models allows for for

• determining why similarly forced models to produce a range of responses,
• evaluating how realistic the different models are in simulating the recent past,
• examining climate predictability.

CMIP5

The fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5, 2008-2012) involved 24 modelling centres running their climate models under the prescribed conditions to produce the multi-model dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate (Taylor et al. 2012). The scientific analyses from CMIP5 were used extensively in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (IPCC AR5), published in September 2013. 

The CMIP5 data archive is distributed through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) though many national centres have either a full or partial copy of the data for their scientists to utilise. A quality-controlled subset of CMIP5 data are made available through the Climate Data Store (CDS) for the users of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

To obtain full details of the whole CMIP5 data archive please refer to the full documentation at the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis & Intercomparison (PCMDI). An introductory factsheet for an overview of an IPCC subset also provides a useful guide to the CMIP5 data. 

CMIP6

CMIP6

CMIP6 will aim to address 3 main questions:

• How does the Earth system respond to forcing?
• What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?
• How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? (Eyring et al, 2016)

There are some differences between the experimental design and organisation of CMIP6 and its predecessor CMIP5. It was decided that for CMIP6, a new and more federated structure would be used, consisting of the following three major elements:

1. A handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP historical simulations (1850 – near-present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of models across different phases of CMIP
2. Common standards, coordination, infrastructure and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble
3. An ensemble of CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to address a large range of specific questions and fill the scientific gaps of the previous CMIP phases (World Climate Research Programme, 2020).

The CMIP6 data archive is distributed The sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is in progress. Approximately 40 modelling centres are participating in this phase of CMIP. During the period 2019-2020 modelling centres are standardising and releasing their data to be distributed internationally through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) . It is expected that though many national centres have either a full or partial copy of the data. A quality-controlled subset of CMIP6 data are made available through the Climate Data Store (CDS) will begin making CMIP6 data available from 2021. for the users of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

Global climate projections in the CDS

The global climate projections in the Climate Data Store (CDS) are a quality-controlled subset of the wider CMIP5 data. These data represent only a small subset of CMIP5 archive. A set of 50 core variables from the CMIP5 archive were identified for the CDS. These are the most used of the CMIP5 data. These variables are provided from seven of the most popular CMIP5 experiments.  

The CDS subset of CMIP5 data have been through a metadata quality control procedure which ensures a high standard of reliability of the data. It may be for example that similar data can be found in the main CMIP5 archive however these data come with no quality assurance and may have metadata errors or omissions. The quality-control process means that the CDS subset of CMIP5 data is further reduced to exclude data that have metadata errors or inconsistencies. It is important to note that passing of the quality control should not be confused with validity: for example, it will be possible for a file to have fully compliant metadata but contain gross errors in the data that have not been noted. In other words, it means that the quality control is purely technical and does not contain any scientific evaluation (for instance consistency check).

Experiments

The CDS-CMIP5 subset consists of the following CMIP5 experiments

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• Scenario experiments RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5: Future projections (2006-2100) forced by RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. RCPs (representative concentration pathways) approximately result in radiative forcings of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 W m-2 at the year 2100 respectively, relative to pre-industrial conditions.

Models, grids and pressure levels

Models 

The models included in the CDS-CMIP5 subset are detailed in the table below, these include most of the models from the main CMIP5 archive. However a small number of models were not included as the data from the models have a research-only restriction on their use, all data in the CDS are released without restriction, therefore, the MIROC and MRI models from Japan are not included. 

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Pressure levels

For pressure level data the model output is available on the pressure levels according to the table below. Note that not all models provide the same pressure levels. 

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Ensembles

Each modelling centre typically run the same experiment using the same model several times to confirm the robustness of results and inform sensitivity studies through the generation of statistical information. A model and its collection of runs is referred to as an ensemble. Within these ensembles, three different categories of sensitivity studies are done, and the resulting individual model runs are labelled by three integers indexing the experiments in each category. 

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For the scenario experiments, the ensemble member identifier is preserved from the historical experiment providing the initial conditions, so RCP 4.5 ensemble member “r1i1p2” is a continuation of historical ensemble member “r1i1p2”.

Parameter listings

Table 1: CMIP5 data on pressure levels

temperature

geopotential_height

relative_humidity

specific_humidity

u_component_of_wind

v_component_of_wind

Table 2: CMIP5 data on single levels

10m_wind_speed

10m_v_component_of_wind

10m_wind_speed

2m_temperature

daily_near_surface_relative_humidity

eastward_turbulent_surface_stress

evaporation

maximum_2m_temperature_in_the_last_24_hours

mean_precipitation_flux

mean_sea_level_pressure

minimum_2m_temperature_in_the_last_24_hours

near_surface_relative_humidity

near_surface_specific_humidity

northward_turbulent_surface_stress

runoff

sea_ice_fraction

sea_ice_plus_snow_amount

sea_ice_surface_temperature

sea_ice_thickness

sea_surface_height_above_geoid

sea_surface_salinity

sea_surface_temperature

skin_temperature

snow_depth_over_sea_ice

snowfall

soil_moisture_content

surface_latent_heat_flux

surface_pressure

surface_sensible_heat_flux

surface_snow_amount

surface_solar_radiation_downwards

surface_thermal_radiation_downwards

surface_upwelling_longwave_radiation

surface_upwelling_shortwave_radiation

toa_outgoing_clear_sky_longwave_radiation

toa_outgoing_clear_sky_short_wave_radiation

toa_outgoing_longwave_radiation

toa_outgoing_shortwave_radiation

total_cloud_cove

Data availability matrix

A data availability matrix for the C3S CMIP5 exists at: https://cp-availability.ceda.ac.uk.

The data availability matrix filter allows users to search the CDS CMIP5 data subset for the data availability for one or more variables within one or more experiments simultaneously. By specifying a minimum ensemble size, each model returned as a result of the search criteria must have at least the number of ensemble members specified by the user. This functionality allows users to determine if a given combination of variables and experiments is available in enough ensemble members for their scientific analysis. The data availability matrix returns a list displaying which models, experiments and ensembles have all of the selected criteria.  The results can be exported either in JSON or CSV format. The first 11 rows of the CSV is metadata, row 12 contains the table headers for the results. The JSON export has 3 main keys: provenance, query and results. Provenance has metadata, query contains information about the selected parameters which gave the results.

Data Format

The CDS subset of CMIP5 data are provided as NetCDF files. NetCDF (Network Common Data Form) is a file format that is freely available and commonly used in the climate modelling community. See more details:  What are NetCDF files and how can I read them

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The metadata provided in NetCDF files adhere to the Climate and Forecast (CF) conventions (v1.4 for CMIP5 data). The rules within the CF-conventions ensure consistency across data files, for example ensuring that the naming of variables is consistent and that the use of variable units is consistent.

File naming conventions

When you download a CMIP5 file from the CDS it will have a naming convention that is as follows:

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• variable is a short variable name, e.g. “tas” for ”temperature at the surface”
• cmor_table is a reference to the realm (an earth system component such as atmosphere or ocean) and frequency of the variable, e.g. “Amon” indicates that a variable is present in the atmosphere realm at a monthly frequency (link to list of these)
• model is the name of the model that produced the data
• ensemble member is the ensemble identifier in the form “r<X>i<Y>p<Z>”, X, Y and Z are integers
• the temporal range is in the form YYYYMM[DDHH]-YYYY[MMDDHH], where Y is year, M is the month, D is day and H is hour. Note that day and hour are optional (indicated by the square brackets) and are only used if needed by the frequency of the data. For example daily data from the 1st of January 1980 to the 31st of December 2010 would be written 19800101-20101231.

Quality control of the CDS-CMIP5 subset

The CDS subset of the CMIP5 data have been through a set of quality control checks before being made available through the CDS. The objective of the quality control process is to ensure that all files in the CDS meet a minimum standard. Data files were required to pass all stages of the quality control process before being made available through the CDS. Data files that fail the quality control process are excluded from the CDS-CMIP5 subset or if possible the error is corrected and a note made in the history attribute of the file. The quality control of the CDS CMIP5 subset checks for metadata errors or inconsistencies against the Climate and Forecast (CF) Conventions and a set of CMIP5 specific file naming and file global metadata conventions. 

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For a detailed description of all the quality control of the data please see the accompanying documentation  

Known issues

• Please note that not all the combinations of models and variables exist. This feature is inherited from the ESGF system, where the main target is to publish as much as possible data and even publish incomplete datasets, which might be of use. This allows to have more data available with the price that not everything is fully complete. 

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