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Global climate projections are simulations of the climate system performed with general circulation models which represent physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface. These models may cover the entire globe or a specific region AH: I AM CONFUSED HERE, SINCE I GUESS THE GLOBAL MODELS COVER ALWAYS THE GLOVBE AND NOT JUST A REGION! and globe and use information about the external influences on the system. Such simulations have been generated by multiple independent climate research centres in an effort coordinated by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climate projections underpin the conclusions of the IPCC Assessment Reports that “Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems”.
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Analysis of the CMIP data allows for
- improving an improved understanding of the climate, including its variability and change,
- improving an improved understanding of the societal and environmental implications of climate change in terms of impacts, adaptation and vulnerability,
- informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.
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The sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) consists of 134 models from 51 modelling centers 53 modelling centres (Durack, 2020). CMIP6 data publication began in 2019 and the majority of the data publication will be completed by 2022. The scientific analyses from CMIP6 will be used extensively in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report (AR6), due for release in 2021/22 (IPCC, 2020).
CMIP6 aims to address 3 main questions:
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