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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
HRES 24h total snowfall (in water equivalent). Base time on 6th January 2021 at 00 UTC and valid time 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th January 2021 at 00 UTC. Meteograms valid for the location with maximum snowfall in the 3 first pictures and Madrid in the last two ones. Last pictures corresponds to HRES 72h total snowfall (in water equivalent). Base time on 6th January 2021 at 00 UTC and valid time 10th January 2021 at 00 UTC (T+96h)
Snow RGB imagery, 12-hour forecast and analysis both valid for 00 UTC on 11 January.
Latest three snow cover analyses.
Analyses at 6 UTC on 10 January with SYNOP observations. There are very few observations from Spain.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 3-day total precipitation for 7-9 January.
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The plots below show EFA and SOT for 24-hour snowfall on 8 January (00-00UTC).
EFI for snowfall. Base Time 6th January 2021 at 00 UTC and valid for 3, 5, 10 and 15days windows. CDFs for Madrid for the same period.
Most probable precipitation map for Europe. Base time on 6th January 2021 at 00 UTC and valid time 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th January 2021 at 00 UTC
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
HARMONIE (top) and HRES (bottom) 24h total precipitation valid for 7th (T+24h), 8th (T+24h), 9th (T+48h) and 10th (T+72h) of January 2021
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
6. Additional material
Air Masses satellite images from 18h (local time in Spain) on 5th Jan to 12 h (local time Spain) 5th Jan, every 2 hours.
Surface chart forecast from Aemet. Base time 5th January 2021 at 12 UTC and valid for 8th January 2021 at 12 UTC (T+72h).
