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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
In the end of May, Canterbury in New Zeeland was hit by severe rainfall resulting in flooding.
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The plots below show HRES forecasts of 72-hour precipitation valid 29-31 May, from different initial dates. (Observation plot to be added)
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation valid 29-31 May, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the evolution of the 3-day precipitation starting on 29 May, in the box outlined in the plots above. The plot includes HRES (red dot), ENS control (purple dot), ENS distribution (blue box-and-whisker) and model climate (red box-and-whisker). The ensemble median was constantly above the 99th percentile of the model climate in forecasts initialised from from 24 May 12UTC and onwards.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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