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The figures below explain the Reporting Points map layer.
The reporting points are created using the following process. 1 For each NWP-driven forecast, a flood probability is computed for each flood threshold using the maximum forecast discharge value over the 10-day forecast horizon. This flood probability is only computed on the large rivers with an upstream area > 250 km2. Very dry area are also excluded by excluding the rivers with a 1.5-year return period below 1 m3/s. A total probability of exceedance is computed from these maximum forecast probabilities (from DWD-HRES, ECMWF-HRES, ECMWF-ENS and COSMO-LEPS, with global weights associated with each forecast)). The weights of the forecasts in the total probability are equal but, in order to avoid the predominance of deterministic forecasts in the region where COSMO-LEPS is not available, we impose a ratio of 50% deterministic, 50% probabilistic in the computation of the total probability. The persistence probability is then calculated by averaging the total probabilities from the current and the previous forecast. Dynamic reporting points are finally created (and their alert levels are computed) based on the following rules:
- 20-year return period: persistence probability > 30% and upstream area > 1000 km2
- 5-year return period: persistence probability > 15% 30% and upstream area > 2000 1000 km2
2-year return period: persistence probability > 50% and upstream area > 2000 1000 km2
Alert levels are also computed for static reporting points where hydrological metadata information is available. The rules are different for these points:
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Below are some graphical aids to help to interpret and use reporting points' feature information products (these can be found under the Flood Summary layer group - Reporting Points layer, when clicking on a point on the EFAS-IS mapviewer).
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Restrictions
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