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When averaged over many forecasts each of the perturbed members has lower skill than the control (or, for that matter, HRES*), though any individual forecast might show a higher skill.  There is a range of products to present the information from the ensemble in different ways, appropriate for different uses including probabilities, clusters of alternative scenarios, and tropical cyclone and extra-tropical cyclone products.  Certain important products are based on, or directly show, anomalies relative to the ENS model climate (M-climate), such as meteograms and the Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails (EFI/SOT ).  From these one can infer, for example, whether conditions (temperature, rainfall, etc.) are likely to deviate from the average for the location and time of year, and whether such an anomaly could be extreme.  The ENS products and presentation in chart or diagram form are described later in the user guide.

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