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 Fig6.4.4:  The Equitable Threat Score (ETS) measures the skill of a forecast relative to chance.  Here it considers observations and forecasts of ≥1mm measured in a day (in effect a rain/no rain verification) at each station during 2016 and averaged over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere.  HRES in Red, CTRL in purple, Ensemble mean (EM) in green, An individual ensemble member (PF) in cyan.  Note the Equitable Threat Score for CTRL and HRES are very similar, but almost a day better than any individual member (e.g. the skill of CTRL at Day7 is as good as that of an individual perturbed forecast PF at Day6, or the skill HRES at Day3 is as good as an individual perturbed forecast PF at day 2).  Note at Day2 the HRES has a higher skill than the CTRL but by Day10 both HRES and CTRL have similar (low) skill.

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