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The ensemble forecast suite (ENS) provides a range of possible future weather states in the medium range.  This allows investigation of the detail and uncertainty in the forecast during the first 10 days or 15 days.

The ensemble medium range forecast ensemble:

  • is run twice daily, base times 00 UTC and 12 UTC, producing a 10 day forecast (Day0 to Day10) and also a 15 day forecast (Day0 to Day15). 
  • has horizontal resolution of 9 Km and vertical resolution of 137 model levels.  These values are the same as those of the High Resolution (HRES) in IFS versions before Cy48r1).
  • has land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere coupling.
  • has 50 ensemble members plus a control member (CONTROL-10 for the 10 day forecast, CONTROL-15 for the 15 day forecast).
  • CONTROL-10 is the unperturbed ensemble member and corresponds to the High Resolution (HRES) in earlier IFS versions before Cy48r1.

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