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Fig8.1.4.1.3: This example probability density function (PDF) diagram shows the ensemble members to be widely distributed but fall towards two distinct more likely wind speeds - one set suggests a most probable wind speed centred around the peak at W1 and a second set suggests a probable wind speed centred around the peak at W2. The CDF associated with the example PDF shows the probability of (i.e. the percentage of ensemble members) attaining wind speeds.
The third diagram is Forecast ensemble forecast and M-Climate CDFs for maximum wind gusts at 45.9°N 45.28°W , VT during the period Saturday 24 March 2018 00 UTC to Sunday 25 March 2018 00 UTC. The trace show CDFs at this location from a series of recent ensemble forecasts for this period and the black line is the CDF from the M-climate. The red (most recent) trace shows a flat interval (at about 57% probability of not exceeding 20m/s gusts) indicating bi-modal structure of the PDF.
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