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Forecast charts on this page fall into three forecast ranges:

HRES or CONTROL-10 output (10 days forecast period)

• HRES or CONTROL-10 output is shown to give "deterministic" snapshots of the forecast evolution for various combinations of parameters.  It is important not to be beguiled into treating HRES or CONTROL-10 charts as definitive, despite the apparent detail.  The HRES or CONTROL-10 should only be considered as one member of the ENS, and it should carry an initially high but gradually diminishing weight through the forecast period.  It is much more effective to use HRES in combination with ENSensemble.
  Charts available:
  
  • Forecast charts (surface and upper air) - showing a selection of individual and combined parameters, to 10days forecast lead-time.
    
    • Charts available(atmospheric):
      • MSLP and wind speed at 850hPa
      • MSLP and wind at 200hPa
      • MSLP and Rain
      • MSLP and 500-1000hPa thickness
      • Vorticity and wind at 700hPa
      • Temperature and geopotential at various pressure levels
      • Wind and geopotential at various pressure levels
      • Wind and relative humidity at various pressure levels
      • Geopotential 500hPa and temperature at 850hPa
      • 2m temperature and 30m winds
      • 2m temperature and 10m winds
      • Total cloud cover
      • Indices (CAPE/K-index/Totalx)
    • Charts available(oceanic):
      • Significant wave height and mean direction
      • Mean wave period and direction
      • Total swell: Significant wave height and mean direction
      • Total swell: Mean wave period and direction
      • Significant wind wave height and mean direction
      • Mean wind wave period and direction
  • Imagery charts:
    • IR and WV imagery charts - these are derived from the structure of the IFS model atmosphere and provide a useful comparison with satellite imagery and analysed and forecast upper air flow patterns.  They may be particularly useful for seeing whether the model is replicating small scale features in the flow. (Example IR chart, Example WV chart). 

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Medium

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range ensemble (10 or 15 day forecast period)

• ENS Ensemble output is shown for individual ENS ensemble members for a few parameters, but more importantly ENS ensemble output showing a selection of individual and combined parameters is presented in a probabilistic or multi-valued format.               Charts available:
  • Forecast charts (surface and upper air) - showing a selection of individual and combined parameters, to 15days forecast lead-time.
    • Postage stamp charts - to show the output of all ENS ensemble members for a few parameters at several forecast lead-times. (Example chart).
    • Mean and Spread charts - to place the uncertainty measured by the standard deviation of the members of the latest ENS ensemble into the context of recent uncertainty in the ENS ensemble forecasts.  (Example chart).
    • Probability charts - to show probabilities of events exceeding a given threshold (e.g. rainfall > 5mm/day).  (Example chart).
    • Extreme Forecast Index charts (including clickable multiparameter charts) - to highlight areas where forecast values depart significantly from M-climate. (Example chart).
    • Plumes, Meteograms, EFI-CDF, Vertical Profiles - to give probabilistic interpretation of the ENS ensemble for specific locations with optional M-climate data to emphasize departure from the re-forecast climatology.   
    • Cluster charts - to distil ENS distil ensemble member output into groups exhibiting similar large-scale patterns enabling assessment of most likely results (i.e. possible 'weather scenarios').  (Example chart).
    • Tropical cyclone activity charts (including genesis) - to indicate tropical cyclone threats worldwide. (Example chart).

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• Clicking the mouse over any location on the "clickable" HRES or CONTROL-10 (all charts) and ENS ensemble charts (Probably charts and Extreme Forecast Index charts) will produce probability information in diagrammatic form on several parameters at that location.  Parameter diagrams available:
  • 10 day meteogram.
  • 15 day meteogram.
  • 15 day meteogram with M-climate.
  • 10 day wavegram.
  • Plume.
  • EFI-CDF.
  • Vertical profile.

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• Model diagnostic output is shown to allow the user to assess the impact of the latest observations or the modelled state of the underlying surface of the earth.
  Charts available:
  • Analysis increment charts - to allow identification of sources of potential problems in the forecast evolution.  (Example chart).
  • Surface parameter charts - to indicate the surface conditions used by HRES and Control by ensemble control runs that govern radiation and other exchanges with the atmosphere.  These allow the user to assess any shortcomings (e.g. insufficient snow cover, soil moisture, leaf area index etc). (Example chart).

Extended

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range ensemble (

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16-45 day forecast period)

Extended range ENSensemble products are derived from an extension of the normal 15 day ENS ensemble twice per week on Mondays and Thursdays and act as a bridge in time between ENS ensemble forecasts and seasonal forecasts.  The charts available cover week-long periods (i.e. 7day periods after the data time of the forecast run, going up to Day28 or 32).
Charts available:

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Long-range or Seasonal forecast charts are derived from an ENS ensemble (separate from the extended range ENSensemble) run on the 1st of each month out to 7 months, extended to 13 months each quarter (i.e. every 3 months).   The charts available mostly cover 3-month periods, with the first valid period typically beginning 1 month after data time.
Charts available:

• Monthly mean probability of anomaly charts - to highlight areas where ENS ensemble forecast values depart significantly from the S-M-climatefor each location within the chart area. (Example chart).
• Climagrams - box and whisker diagrams comparing the distributions of parameter averages within pre-defined regions:
  • as forecast by the seasonal ENSensemble,
  • as represented in the S-M-climate re-forecasts,
  • and as represented in re-analyses.
    (Example climagram).
• Tropical storm probabilities and anomalies against S-M-climate. (Example chart).
• Niño plumes - show the range of seasonal forecasts of sea-surface temperature over pre-defined regions of equatorial Pacific. (Example plume).

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