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Forecast charts on this page fall into three forecast ranges:

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CONTROL-10(HRES) output (10 days forecast period)

• HRES or CONTROL-10(HRES) output is shown to give "deterministic" snapshots of the forecast evolution for various combinations of parameters.  It is important not to be beguiled into treating HRES or CONTROL-10(HRES) charts as definitive, despite the apparent detail.  The HRES or CONTROL-10(HRES) should only be considered as one member of the ensemble.
  Charts available:
  
  • Forecast charts (surface and upper air) - showing a selection of individual and combined parameters, to 10days forecast lead-time.
    
    • Charts available(atmospheric):
      • MSLP and wind speed at 850hPa
      • MSLP and wind at 200hPa
      • MSLP and Rain
      • MSLP and 500-1000hPa thickness
      • Vorticity and wind at 700hPa
      • Temperature and geopotential at various pressure levels
      • Wind and geopotential at various pressure levels
      • Wind and relative humidity at various pressure levels
      • Geopotential 500hPa and temperature at 850hPa
      • 2m temperature and 30m winds
      • 2m temperature and 10m winds
      • Total cloud cover
      • Indices (CAPE/K-index/Totalx)
    • Charts available(oceanic):
      • Significant wave height and mean direction
      • Mean wave period and direction
      • Total swell: Significant wave height and mean direction
      • Total swell: Mean wave period and direction
      • Significant wind wave height and mean direction
      • Mean wind wave period and direction
  • Imagery charts:
    • IR and WV imagery charts - these are derived from the structure of the IFS model atmosphere and provide a useful comparison with satellite imagery and analysed and forecast upper air flow patterns.  They may be particularly useful for seeing whether the model is replicating small scale features in the flow. (Example IR chart, Example WV chart). 

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• Ensemble output is shown for individual ensemble members for a few parameters.  More importantly, but more importantly ensemble output showing a selection of individual and combined parameters is presented in a probabilistic or multi-valued format. Charts  Charts available:
  • Forecast charts (surface and upper air) - showing a selection of individual and combined parameters, to 15days forecast lead-time.
    • Postage stamp charts - to show the output of all ensemble members for a few parameters at several forecast lead-times. (Example chart).
    • Mean and Spread charts - to place the uncertainty measured by the standard deviation of the members of the latest ensemble into the context of recent uncertainty in the ensemble forecasts.  (Example chart).
    • Probability charts - to show probabilities of events exceeding a given threshold (e.g. rainfall > 5mm/day).  (Example chart).
    • Extreme Forecast Index charts (including clickable multiparameter charts) - to highlight areas where forecast values depart significantly from M-climate. (Example chart).
    • Plumes, Meteograms, EFI-CDF, Vertical Profiles - to give probabilistic interpretation of the ensemble for specific locations with optional M-climate data to emphasize departure from the re-forecast climatology.   
    • Cluster charts - to distil ensemble member output into groups exhibiting similar large-scale patterns enabling assessment of most likely results (i.e. possible 'weather scenarios').  (Example chart).
    • Tropical cyclone activity charts (including genesis) - to indicate tropical cyclone threats worldwide. (Example chart).

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• Clicking the mouse over any location on the "clickable" HRES or CONTROL-10(HRES) (all charts) and ensemble charts (Probably charts and Extreme Forecast Index charts) will produce probability information in diagrammatic form on several parameters at that location.  Parameter diagrams available:
  • 10 day meteogram.
  • 15 day meteogram.
  • 15 day meteogram with M-climate.
  • 10 day wavegram.
  • Plume.
  • EFI-CDF.
  • Vertical profile.

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• Weekly mean anomaly charts - to highlight areas where mean forecast values depart significantly from the ER-M-climate for each location within the chart area. (Example chart).
• Weekly probability anomaly charts - to highlight the probability of differing from the ER-M-climate mean for each location within the chart area. (Example chart).
• Weekly tercile probability charts - to show the probability the weekly mean anomalies will be in lower and upper third of the ER-M-climate for each location within the chart area. (Example chart).Weekly multiparameter outlook charts.
• Weekly averages of the monthly forecast ensemble for several variables on a single chart. (Example chart).Monthly forecast plumes for a selection of European cities. (Example plume).
• Postage stamp charts - to show the output of all EPS members ensemble members for a few parameters at several forecast lead-times. (Example chart).
• Weather regime clusters and weather regime time series (based on six seasonal climatological regimes) - to show the more probable flow patterns and predicted changes from one type to another. (Example cluster chart, example time series chart).
• Tropical cyclone probability charts (including genesis) - to indicate tropical cyclone threat and intensity worldwide and compare with tropical cyclone frequency and intensity in the ER-M-climate. (Example chart).
• Time-longitude (Hovmoeller) diagram of the observed and forecast ensemble mean anomaly of 500hPa or 1000hPa geopotential (in dam) in the extra-tropics - to show persistence and progression of disturbances and potential interaction between upper and lower features. (Example diagram).
• Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index metrics and Wheeler-Hendon MJO diagram - to show recent and forecast evolution and uncertainty of MJO features. (Example MJO index metrics Hovmoeller diagram, example Wheeler-Hendon MJO diagram).

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