Page History

...

• ECMWF strategy 2015-2025 centres on ENS development
• HRES ceased upon The medium range control member (CTRL)  became almost identical to HRES upon the introduction of Cy48r1 in June 2023.

Use of the ensemble control member (

...

CTRL)

The control member of the medium range ensemble has the same horizontal and vertical resolutions as HRES.  This does not mean that it may be used simply as a substitute for HRES working as a deterministic model yielding deterministic results.  As a forecasting aid it is not a direct substitute for HRES.

There are 50 other members of the ensemble.  All are equally valid.  There is no reason to select the results from the unperturbed control member (CTRL) rather than any of the others.   And any member viewed in isolation cannot provide any estimate of forecast uncertainty or confidence.   

...