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Remarks on the Extended Range
Extended Range Structure
The extended range (monthly) ensemble is run daily based on 00UTC data. The products cover the period up to Day46 and are derived from a 100 member ensemble with a control and has a resolution of 36km. The extended range ENS is independent of the medium range ENS and has it's own control and extended range model climate (ER-M-climate).
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Re-forecasts provide an Extended Range climate (ER-M-climate) and associated probability distribution functions (pdfs) for several variables. The latest extended range ensemble forecasts and the associated probability density functions can be compared with the ER-M-Climate. The differences between the two are used as the basis of model products any model drift is effectively removed.
Combating Model Drift
Drift of model calculations begins to be significant after 10 days of coupled integrations. It displays similar patterns to seasonal forecasting after 6 months of integrations, but with less amplitude.
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